The San Antonio Spurs are in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2017, and they get the Oklahoma City Thunder in a series that nobody saw coming when the season started. Game 1 is Monday night in OKC, and the matchup is going to give us one of the most intriguing playoff series in years. Victor Wembanyama versus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is appointment television.
The Thunder are the favorites for a reason. They have the back-to-back MVP. They have the best record in the league. They have a deep roster that handled the first two rounds without breaking a sweat. Mark Daigneault has this team playing tight, fast, and disciplined basketball. OKC is the most complete team in the West.
But the Spurs are not just along for the ride. Wembanyama is the rare player who can change a playoff series by himself. He has been blocking shots, dictating spacing, and finishing at a level that has not been seen from a true seven-footer in decades. When Wemby is on the floor, the Thunder offense has to fundamentally change how it operates.
The Mitch Johnson factor is going to be the X-factor here. The Spurs head coach is a first-year guy who has built San Antonio into a 50-win team and now into a conference finals participant. Johnson does not get the love that Coach of the Year frontrunner J.B. Bickerstaff gets, but his work this year has been every bit as impressive. He is going to need to win some chess matches against Daigneault to advance.
The key matchup is going to be at the center position. The Thunder play small most of the time, with Chet Holmgren as a stretch big and a roster full of switchable wings. Wembanyama is going to force OKC into adjustments. Do they go big to match up with him, or do they try to drag him out of the paint and force him to defend on the perimeter?
SGA’s response to the Wemby challenge is going to define the series. The Thunder star has been operating in the midrange and at the rim, but Wemby is the kind of rim protector who can take away those easy buckets. SGA might have to lean more on his three-point shooting and his ability to draw fouls in this series. The good news for OKC is that he has both of those skills in spades.
The supporting cast battle is also crucial. Oklahoma City has Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Lu Dort, and a deep bench. San Antonio has Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, and a strong rotation. The bench play might tilt the series, and OKC has the deeper team by a wide margin.
The series prediction here is Thunder in six. SGA and Wemby are going to put on a show, and the Spurs are going to win at least one game just because Wemby is too good to lose four straight. But the Thunder have the depth, the home court, the MVP, and the experience from last year’s playoff run. They are going to advance.
The bigger picture is that this Spurs season was a massive overachievement. Wembanyama is only in year three. The roster is young. The future in San Antonio looks as bright as it has since the Tim Duncan era was ending. Getting to a conference finals this early is a sign that the next great Spurs run is just getting started.
For the Thunder, the championship clock is ticking. SGA is in his prime, the supporting cast is locked in for now, and the window to win is open right now. Losing this series would be a disaster. Winning it sets up a finals matchup against either the Pistons or Cavaliers, both of which favor OKC.
Game 1 is Monday at 8:30 ET. Get ready for the best playoff series of the year.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
