The Detroit Pistons forced a Game 7 in Cleveland on Sunday night, and history says the Cavs are in trouble. Detroit is 5-0 all time in Game 7s played at home, including the first round win over Orlando earlier this postseason. That is not a coincidence. That is a building, a crowd, and a roster that gets after it when the lights are brightest.
Detroit kept its season alive with a 115-94 win in Game 6, and they did it on the road in Cleveland. The Cavs had a chance to close it out at home and could not. That is the kind of momentum shift that follows a team into a decisive game.
Cleveland still has the talent edge on paper. Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and a roster that won a lot of regular season games do not just disappear. The Cavs also enter Sunday with the best Game 7 win percentage in NBA history at minimum three games, and they have won five straight in winner-take-all games. The numbers are stacked in their favor.
But postseason basketball is not played on a spreadsheet. The Pistons have looked like the more confident team for the last 96 minutes of basketball, and Cade Cunningham finally looks like the franchise cornerstone Detroit drafted him to be. When Cunningham gets in the lane and creates for guys like Jaden Ivey, the Pistons offense becomes a nightmare to defend.
The other side of this story is what is at stake for Cleveland. Mitchell signed a long-term extension to be here. Kenny Atkinson got hired to take this team over the top. Anything less than a Finals berth is going to feel like a missed window, and a Game 7 loss at home to a team that was not supposed to be here would be a franchise altering result.
I am picking the Pistons in this one, and the reason is simple. Detroit has nothing to lose and Cleveland has everything to lose. The Cavs have not handled pressure well in this series, and the building in Detroit is going to be loud and unforgiving. Add in the 5-0 home Game 7 record and you have the recipe for an upset.
The winner gets a date with the Eastern Conference Finals. That is a tough matchup either way, but it is a much better matchup for the Pistons. Detroit can run with anybody, and J.B. Bickerstaff’s defensive scheme has caused the Cavs problems all series long.
One thing to watch in Game 7 is the rebounding battle. Cleveland has the size advantage with Mobley and Allen, but Detroit has been winning the hustle plays and the second chance possessions. If the Pistons can keep that going, they will hang around late, and late in a Game 7 is where the home team usually finds a way.
This is the kind of moment that defines careers. For Cunningham, it is the chance to become the next big thing in the Eastern Conference. For Mitchell, it is the chance to silence the critics who say he cannot get a team past the second round. Both are true, both matter, and only one guy gets to walk off the floor happy.
Tip is Sunday night. Buckle up. This one is going to come down to the final minute.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
