LeBron James is once again the biggest domino in the NBA offseason. The Los Angeles Lakers think they have him. The Golden State Warriors think they have a shot. ESPN insider Brian Windhorst put the odds at “51 percent” Lakers earlier this week, which is the kind of number designed to keep both fan bases sweating until the contract is actually signed.
James, who turns 42 in December, has a player option on his Lakers contract and has not yet exercised it. The decision is expected by the end of the month. Where he ends up will have ripple effects across the entire league.
The Lakers are the obvious choice on paper. James has spent the last seven years in Los Angeles. He has won a championship there. He has a young roster around Luka Doncic, who is the player most NBA observers believe is the heir to the Lakers throne. His family is settled there. He has business interests in the area. The franchise is willing to pay him whatever he wants on a one-year deal.
The Warriors are the curveball. Golden State has been quietly working James for months. The pitch is straightforward. Come to the Bay Area for one final season. Play with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and the rest of the Warriors’ core. Chase one more title in a system that maximizes everything James does well on offense.
The basketball case for the Warriors is real. Golden State runs a system that requires less ball-handling from James. He would not need to be the primary creator. He could play off Curry’s gravity, which is the most valuable piece of basketball real estate in the league. He would get easier shots than he has had in years.
The basketball case against the Warriors is also real. The Warriors are not a great team. They got knocked out of the second round of the playoffs last year. The defense was bad. The bench was thin. The roster around Curry is aging just as fast as Curry is. Adding James does not fix the structural problems with that team.
The Lakers have their own issues. Luka Doncic is the franchise player, but the supporting cast is uneven. JJ Redick is in his second year as head coach and still figuring out the rotation. The front office has not done a great job of building around Luka in his first full season in Los Angeles. Adding LeBron back fixes some of those problems but creates new ones.
Windhorst’s 51 percent is also notable for what it implies. A year ago, the percentage would have been closer to 80. The Lakers were a lock to retain James. The fact that Golden State is now seen as a 49 percent chance to land him is a real shift in how the league sees the situation.
The Bronny James factor is also part of this. James has been publicly committed to playing with his son. Bronny is on the Lakers roster. He has not played significant minutes yet. If LeBron goes to Golden State, that is the end of the father-son experiment in Los Angeles. The Lakers would either need to trade Bronny or keep him on the roster as a depth piece.
Most insiders still expect James to return to the Lakers. The familiarity is too strong. The family situation is too settled. The chance to play next to Luka for at least one more season is too tempting. The Warriors have a real pitch, but the Lakers have the better hand.
This is also vintage LeBron drama. He has done this same dance every offseason for the last decade. He floats trade rumors. He drops hints. He lets the media spin out scenarios. Then he ends up exactly where most people thought he would end up all along.
Lakers fans should hold their breath until the ink is dry. Then they can exhale.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
