The single biggest domino at the 2026 MLB trade deadline is the same one it has been for weeks. Tarik Skubal.
The Detroit Tigers’ ace, and reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner, is set to be a free agent after the season. He is carrying a $32 million salary. And with the Tigers still in the mix in the AL Central race, the smartest baseball people cannot seem to agree on whether Detroit will actually move him before Monday’s 6 p.m. ET deadline.
The latest volley: the Los Angeles Times reported over the weekend that a Skubal blockbuster is not likely to be part of the Dodgers’ trade deadline plans. Los Angeles has been the most obvious rumor destination for Skubal all summer, and that report seemed to close the door.
Then The Athletic’s Katie Woo went the other way and reported that the Dodgers plan to “remain engaged” on Skubal. So who knows what to believe. Welcome to the last week before the trade deadline.
Skubal has looked like the best pitcher in baseball for most of the last two years. Since coming out of the All-Star break, he has dominated the Angels and the Royals in his first two starts of the second half. Any team acquiring him gets the closest thing to a guaranteed October ace on the market.
The Tigers’ calculus is complicated. They are competitive. They probably make the playoffs. Trading Skubal is the kind of move that ends a season and starts a rebuild, and that is not how the front office wants to be perceived by their own fan base right now.
But the alternative is watching Skubal walk in November for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick. That is a lot of value to give up on a pitcher who could reasonably be the best rental in the history of the trade deadline. Detroit does not have the payroll capacity to keep him long-term without shedding significant salary elsewhere.
The market for Skubal, if he does become available, would be enormous. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Mets, and Blue Jays (yes, if they somehow decide to buy back in) could all realistically match up. The return would probably be at least two top-100 prospects plus a major league piece, and it could be more.
Anecdotally, the vibes have shifted this week. Detroit’s front office has been quieter than expected, which usually means something is being cooked up. That could be a Skubal move. It could also be additional buys around him to make the Tigers actually better this year.
My guess is he stays. Not because it is the right baseball move, but because a general manager who trades the reigning Cy Young winner in the middle of a playoff race does not usually stay a general manager very long. Detroit will play out the string, let Skubal chase a title in Motown, and try to sign him to an extension in November.
The counter-guess is that a mystery contender blows Detroit’s socks off with a package the front office cannot refuse. Nobody would be shocked if that call came Sunday afternoon.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
