Tarik Skubal is going to get traded. The only question is where, and how big the package has to be.
Ken Rosenthal reported this week that Detroit is “trending” toward dealing Skubal before the August 3 trade deadline. The Tigers sit 11.5 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central and have no realistic path to contending this year. Skubal is on a one-year, $32 million arbitration deal. The math points one direction.
The smart money is on the Dodgers.
Los Angeles is the most obvious destination for every star pitcher available at every deadline. They have the prospect capital. They have the cap space. They have the playoff infrastructure that makes elite veterans want to come west. With Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell currently out, the Dodgers’ need for a true frontline starter is sharper than usual.
Skubal would slot in next to Yamamoto as a co-ace. The October rotation would be Yamamoto, Skubal, Sasaki, and a fourth starter. That is enough to win a World Series, full stop.
The Yankees are the other team to watch.
New York is a few games out in the AL East and the rotation needs depth. The Yankees have been linked to Skubal in trade pitches that include their top prospect Spencer Jones and pitcher Ben Hess. If New York gets Skubal, the Yankees would, in some media outlets’ projections, become the World Series favorite outright.
The catch is the price.
Skubal is 27 years old. He has won a Cy Young Award. He throws 99 with one of the best changeups in baseball. He is everything a contender wants in a midseason ace. The Tigers will not give him up for a normal trade package. The asking price is going to be a top-50 prospect plus multiple supporting pieces, and the bidding war between the Dodgers and Yankees is going to push the cost higher.
The Toronto Blue Jays are also in the mix, per multiple reports. They went to the World Series last fall and need another arm to defend the AL East. The Seattle Mariners are interested. The San Diego Padres are interested. The Cubs and Brewers have both been mentioned in passing.
This is going to be the headline trade of the deadline.
Skubal’s health is the one wild card. He is still recovering from offseason surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. He has begun throwing progression. The Tigers want to see him on the mound before committing to a trade, because moving a star pitcher whose elbow is unproven is a brutal way to find out the deal was a mistake.
If Skubal makes his return start sometime in mid-June and looks like Skubal again, the bidding war erupts immediately. Every team that needs an ace will get involved. The Dodgers will likely win because of their prospect depth and willingness to take on payroll.
If Skubal struggles in his return or has any kind of setback, the trade market freezes. Detroit might decide to hold him through the deadline, hope he rebuilds his value over the second half, and trade him in the offseason instead.
The Tigers’ situation is harsh but realistic. They are not contending in 2026. They have a generational pitcher on an expiring contract. They need to maximize the return now and accelerate their rebuild around hitters like Riley Greene and Colt Keith.
The Dodgers’ situation is the inverse. They are in win-now mode. The window with Ohtani at his peak is narrow. Adding Skubal would be the kind of swing that defines a championship year.
The Yankees’ situation is more complicated. They have a roster gap to fill, but their farm system is not as deep as Los Angeles’. They might have to overpay to win the bidding war, and overpaying for a half-season of pitching is the kind of move that creates long-term problems.
The deadline is two months away. The bidding has already started. Tarik Skubal is the most valuable pitcher in baseball, and the team that lands him is going to look like the World Series favorite the moment the trade goes through.
The Dodgers should win. They usually do.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
