Jon Heyman Says Tarik Skubal Trade Is 90 Percent Likely. The Tigers Ace Is Going Somewhere.
Jon Heyman thinks Tarik Skubal is going to get traded. He is not hedging the number even a little.
The MLB Network insider said this week on air that he believes there is a 90 percent chance the Detroit Tigers trade their two-time Cy Young winner before the Aug. 3 deadline. “I think the chances are excellent that he is traded,” Heyman said. “I think the likelihood is very, very high. I would say 90 percent.”
That is the kind of number that turns trade speculation into something closer to inevitability. Insiders do not throw 90 percent around lightly. When they do, they are essentially telling you the deal is happening, the only question is which contender gets the prize.
The case for trading Skubal is straightforward. He is in the final year of his contract before free agency. The Tigers are 30-35 and going nowhere this season. The market for a healthy, controllable, dominant left-handed ace is one of the rarest commodities in baseball. The return Detroit could get back, multiple top-100 prospects and possibly a major league piece, would set up the franchise for the next half-decade.
The case against trading Skubal is essentially emotional. Detroit fans love him. He is the face of the franchise. Tearing him away from a fan base that has suffered through years of bad baseball would be a brutal PR moment. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has been clear that he wants to build sustainably, and dumping the team’s best player at the deadline does not fit that narrative.
Heyman thinks the case for wins out. Most other insiders agree. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently reported that Skubal has been the subject of trade calls from at least eight different organizations. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that the Tigers have been “open” to listening on Skubal for over a month.
The complicating factor is that Skubal is currently on the injured list following minor elbow surgery. He is expected to return to the mound in late June or early July. That timeline actually works in Detroit’s favor because it gives Skubal enough runway to make 4-5 healthy starts before the deadline and prove to potential trade partners that his arm is fine. A clean return to the mound likely pushes a deal toward late July.
The leading suitors as of right now: the Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays, and the San Diego Padres. All four are in the playoff race. All four have the prospect capital to make a real offer. All four have an obvious need for a top-of-rotation starter heading into October.
The Dodgers are the most interesting fit. Los Angeles has been dealing with rotation injuries all year. Tyler Glasnow has had back issues. Blake Snell has elbow problems. Brusdar Graterol just had back surgery and may miss the rest of the season. Skubal would slot into a rotation that needs an ace and would form an absolute monster postseason trio with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Snell when healthy.
The Yankees are the second-most obvious fit. New York lost Aaron Judge for 4-6 weeks with a rib stress fracture, but the rotation has been holding the team together. Gerrit Cole and Skubal at the top of a postseason rotation is the kind of pairing that wins championships. The Yankees have a deep enough farm system to put together an offer the Tigers cannot refuse.
The Blue Jays are the dark horse. Toronto has been disappointing all season but is still close enough to contention to justify a major deadline move. Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are both in contract years. Trading future capital for Skubal could be the move that keeps the championship window cracked open.
The Padres are the lurker. AJ Preller has been the most aggressive deadline operator in baseball for years. He has the prospects to make any deal work. He has owner Peter Seidler’s blessing to spend. And he has a roster that desperately needs another high-end starter to compete in the National League.
The Tigers should be able to get an offer with at least two top-50 prospects. Detroit fans are not going to like that. But losing Skubal for nothing in free agency this winter would be the worst possible outcome for a rebuild that has finally started to show real promise.
Heyman put the odds at 90 percent. Most of the people who follow this stuff for a living think he is being conservative. Skubal is going somewhere. The next eight weeks are going to determine where.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
