Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball. He is a pending free agent. The Tigers are holding him anyway.
Every rival executive who has spoken publicly says the same thing. Detroit intends to keep Skubal beyond the August 3 trade deadline. The Tigers still think they can win the American League Central and they want their ace on the mound for a playoff run.
The two-time Cy Young winner is not going anywhere.
Why the Tigers Are Holding
Detroit went on a 21-12 run through June and early July. That pulled them back into the playoff picture. They are five games out of the division lead and firmly in the wild card race. Trading their best player mid-run would be a signal to the clubhouse that ownership does not believe in this team.
Skubal has been the best pitcher in the league for two years. He has a 2.15 ERA and 195 strikeouts through July. He is a legitimate Cy Young frontrunner again. Every fifth day he takes the mound, the Tigers have a chance to win.
Losing him mid-season for prospects would set Detroit back at least two years. Keeping him for a playoff run, even knowing he might walk in free agency, is the right competitive call.
Why the Dodgers Are Still Circling
Los Angeles wants Skubal. Andrew Friedman wants Skubal. Every Dodgers fan wants Skubal. He would slot into a rotation with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow to form the most terrifying playoff staff in baseball.
The Dodgers have the prospect capital to make the offer irresistible. Elite hitting prospects, elite pitching prospects, a mix of MLB-ready pieces. Los Angeles could construct a package that overwhelms even a hesitant Tigers front office.
But the Tigers are not sellers. They are marginal buyers. Detroit is more likely to add a bullpen arm this deadline than to trade its ace. Skubal is going to make his next start in a Tigers uniform. Probably his next 15 starts.
What Happens After the Season
This is where it gets interesting. Skubal hits free agency in October. He is going to command a contract north of $400 million over eight years. The Tigers have to decide whether to pay him or let him walk and take the compensation pick.
Detroit has money. Not Yankees money, but real money. Owner Chris Ilitch has signaled the team is willing to spend. Whether they will spend $50 million per year on one pitcher is the question. That is Verlander money in 2018, in today’s dollars.
The compensation pick is a consolation prize. It gets you a top-30 pick in the next draft. It does not replace losing a Cy Young ace, but it is not nothing either.
Skubal wants to stay in Detroit. He has said as much. His agent will push for the maximum offer, but if the Tigers meet the number, this deal gets done. The extension talks probably happen in November.
For now, Skubal is a Tiger. He is going to pitch big games in September. Detroit fans should enjoy every one of them. Because whether he leaves in November or in three years, this is a special player at his peak.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
