Dodgers Are the Favorites to Land Tarik Skubal at the Deadline: How the Bidding War Plays Out
Tarik Skubal is going to get traded by July 31. The Tigers are not paying him what Scott Boras is asking for. He is a free agent at the end of the season. Detroit cannot afford to let him walk for nothing.
The Dodgers are the team most likely to land him. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, multiple MLB executives have said that if the Dodgers “want to” acquire Skubal, they will. That is one of those sentences that sounds simple but tells you everything about the current state of the trade market.
Skubal is the best pitcher in the American League when he is on the mound. He has won the AL Cy Young in each of the last two seasons. He is 29 years old. He is on a $9.7 million arbitration contract that ends after this season. He is also currently on the injured list, recovering from a NanoScope elbow procedure he had in March.
The injury is the wrinkle that makes the trade market interesting. Skubal is expected back on a major league mound in mid-June. That gives any trade partner about six weeks to evaluate his return before the July 31 deadline. Teams will get to see how his velocity holds up, how the breaking ball moves, and how his command is. By the time the deadline comes, the buyers will have a strong sense of whether they are getting peak Skubal or post-surgery Skubal.
The Dodgers have the strongest position for a few reasons. They have the deepest farm system in baseball. They can match any package any other team puts together. They also have a current rotation that has been hit by injuries (again), and they are looking at the postseason knowing they need another ace if they want to win another World Series.
The other serious bidders are the Yankees, the Padres, and the Rays. New York has the resources but a depleted farm system after the Juan Soto trade and a few other moves. The Padres have the prospects but limited financial flexibility. The Rays are a wild card because they almost never make deadline rentals, but they have the surplus of young talent to put together an interesting package.
Detroit’s return in any deal is going to be massive. Picture a package centered around Dalton Rushing, the Dodgers’ top hitting prospect, plus at least one of Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, or Justin Wrobleski. Plus probably another lower-level prospect or two. Plus possibly a young big-league piece. The cost of two months of Skubal in a Cy Young form is going to be steep.
Why would Detroit do this when they are currently a fringe playoff team? Because they have to. Skubal is not signing a contract extension with the Tigers. Boras is asking for $400 million-plus on a multi-year deal. Detroit ownership is not paying that. The choice is trade him now for a haul or get a draft pick when he walks in free agency. The math is obvious.
The Tigers do still have a faint hope of contending in the AL Central, which is the weakest division in baseball. They are 31-33 entering Wednesday and could realistically make a run. But the front office is going to read the room over the next month. If the team is not within shouting distance of first place by mid-July, Skubal is gone.
Dodgers fans should start clearing room on the wall for another Cy Young winner. Los Angeles has the assets, the motivation, and the recent track record of getting any trade target they want. The path is clear.
Detroit fans should start saying goodbye. Skubal has been the franchise’s best player for three years. He will not be the franchise’s best player in August.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
