MLB

Aaron Judge Is on Pace for 64 Home Runs: Can He Actually Break His Own Record?

Aaron Judge is doing this again. The Yankees slugger drilled his 16th home run of the season on May 10 against the Brewers, took home AL Player of the Month honors, and is on pace to break his own American League single-season home run record. The number to chase this time is 63.

Judge hit 62 in 2022 to set the AL record. He hit 58 in 2024. He has now hit 15 home runs in 38 games to start 2026, putting him on pace for 64 over a full 162-game season. Look at those numbers and try to do the work. He is not just having another great season. He is having his best season.

The April-May numbers are absurd. He is batting .342 with a .474 on-base percentage and an .882 slugging percentage. He has 12 home runs in 21 May games. He is walking like a man who knows pitchers do not want to throw him strikes, and he is destroying the ones who do.

What separates this Judge run from the 2022 version is the consistency. In 2022, he had a few cold stretches where he went a week without a home run before going on a tear. This year, he has been steady from the opening series. The longest stretch without a home run has been three games. He is in the box every night feeling like a threat to leave the yard, and pitchers are pitching him accordingly.

The Yankees are leveraging it. New York is among the AL leaders, the lineup around Judge has improved with Juan Soto’s exit forcing other guys to step up, and the rotation has been better than expected. This team is built to win games when Judge is on, and Judge is on right now.

The injury history is the only thing that should temper expectations. Judge has been on the IL multiple times in his career. He missed significant chunks of 2018, 2019, and the back half of 2024. At 33 years old and with his frame, the wear and tear is real. Staying on the field for 145-plus games is the biggest variable for whether the home run total ends up at 64 or 50.

If he stays healthy, the milestones in front of him are historic. Judge would become the first player in MLB history to have five 50-home run seasons. That puts him in a category by himself, ahead of Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and every other power hitter who ever played the game. Five seasons of 50-plus is a lifetime achievement.

The home run record question is more loaded. The American League single-season record is his to break. The all-time record sits at 73, set by Barry Bonds in 2001 with the steroid asterisk attached. Judge will not catch Bonds. Nobody will, probably ever again. But he can break the AL record in clean fashion, which is the more meaningful number for most fans.

The Yankees offense is also producing around him in a way it did not always last year. Trent Grisham has been better than expected. Jasson Dominguez is starting to look like the player the team scouted. Anthony Volpe and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are providing speed and athleticism. New York has a real chance to get back to the World Series after losing in 2024.

For now, the focus is on Judge and the chase. Every at-bat is appointment television. Every home run is one closer to history. The Yankees are winning. The clubhouse is loose. The home run race is on, and Aaron Judge is the runaway favorite to be the most talked-about player in baseball over the next four months.

If he stays on the field, 64 is in play. If he stays on the field and stays hot, the numbers could climb even higher. Either way, the chase is on, and we are watching one of the great power hitters in baseball history put on another show for the ages.

Carlos Garcia

A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
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