Aaron Judge has a return date. Barring any setbacks, the Yankees captain is expected back in the lineup on August 26 when New York opens a three-game set against the Rays at Yankee Stadium.
Judge has been on the injured list since July 30 with a strained flexor in his throwing arm. The initial fear was surgery. The actual outcome, mercifully for the Yankees, was a rehab program that started with rest, moved into light throwing this past weekend, and could include a short minor-league rehab assignment next week.
Aaron Boone confirmed the target date on Thursday but was careful to leave himself room. He said the plan is contingent on Judge tolerating live batting practice and one or two rehab games. If everything checks out, the reigning MVP is back in pinstripes in less than two weeks.
The timing matters. The Yankees are three games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East and holding on to the top wild-card spot by two games. Every series is a scramble. The lineup without Judge has been treading water, mostly thanks to Juan Soto putting up video-game numbers in July, but a lineup with Judge is a different animal.
Judge was hitting .329 with 41 home runs and 92 RBI when he went down. He was on pace for his second 60-homer season. He was the runaway favorite for a third MVP. He is 33 and playing better than he did at 29.
The concern, obviously, is the arm. Flexor strains have a nasty habit of turning into UCL problems. The Yankees are being cautious. They will not run Judge out to right field on day one. Expect him to DH for the first week or so, then rotate out to right field once the training staff is confident the arm holds up under game-throw intensity.
That plan works because Ben Rice has been solid at first base and Giancarlo Stanton is on the shelf again. Judge can DH and hit without needing to make throws until his body is ready. The Yankees have the roster flexibility to make it work.
What Judge’s return does to the AL East race is the interesting part. Toronto’s lead is real. It is not insurmountable. If the Yankees get 30 games of vintage Judge to close the season, they have the offense to win the division outright. If they get a diminished version because the arm is still bothering him, they are probably a wild-card team.
Boone is publicly downplaying the pressure. Privately, every Yankee source will tell you the same thing: they need Judge back and they need him healthy. The rotation is fine. The bullpen is fine. The lineup, without its MVP, is not enough to win in October.
August 26 is circled. The AL East race starts turning that day.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
