Arch Manning Might Not Even Declare for the 2027 NFL Draft, Sarkisian Says
The 2027 NFL Draft has been built around Arch Manning. The Texas quarterback may end up not even declaring.
Steve Sarkisian publicly cast doubt this week on whether Manning will leave Texas after the 2026 season. The Longhorns head coach said in an interview that Manning’s plans for the draft are not a foregone conclusion and that the family is still weighing all options.
This is a story that has been brewing for months. Every NFL mock draft for 2027 has Manning as the projected No. 1 overall pick. ESPN and CBS Sports both have him as the consensus top quarterback prospect. The Manning name carries weight in NFL front offices in ways that no other prospect can match.
But Manning has reasons to stay. He is reportedly making around $5 million annually in NIL money at Texas. He has the chance to break Texas career records that his uncles Peyton and Eli established at their respective schools. He has another season to develop without the pressure of being a No. 1 overall pick.
The family’s history matters too. Peyton Manning stayed at Tennessee for his senior year despite being a likely top pick after his junior season. Eli Manning stayed at Ole Miss for his senior year as well. Both made the financial and developmental calculations and decided that an extra year of college was worth it.
Arch is now potentially following that same path. The 2027 NFL Draft would be his earliest eligibility, but the more likely outcome could be a 2028 declaration. That would give him two more years at Texas to develop as a passer and build his draft resume.
The challenge with staying is the injury risk. Manning has taken his share of hits, and Texas plays in the meat grinder that is the new SEC. A serious injury in his junior season could cost him millions in NFL draft slot value. The financial argument for going pro after this season is real.
The counter-argument is that Manning’s draft stock is already so high that he is essentially guaranteed to be the No. 1 pick whenever he comes out. The question is not whether he goes top of the draft. The question is when. And the answer to that question is up to him and his family.
For Texas football, this story is everything. The Longhorns are built around Manning right now. The recruiting class is built around Manning. The offensive scheme is built around Manning. Steve Sarkisian’s job security is built around Manning.
If Manning stays for 2027, Texas is the preseason No. 1 team in the country. They have the most loaded roster in college football, the easiest schedule of the SEC contenders, and the kind of momentum that wins national championships.
If Manning declares for 2027, Texas has to scramble for a quarterback through the portal or rely on a freshman. The drop-off from Manning to anyone else on the roster is significant, and the Longhorns would go from national title favorite to fringe playoff team in one offseason.
NFL teams are paying close attention. The Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, and Houston Texans are all in various states of quarterback uncertainty for 2027. Each of those franchises has factored Manning into its long-term planning.
The tank-for-Arch conversation has been a real thing in NFL circles. Teams have made roster decisions based on the expectation that Manning will be the No. 1 pick in April 2027. If he stays in college, those calculations get thrown out the window.
The 2026 college football season will tell us everything. If Manning has a Heisman-level year and stays healthy, the financial argument for going pro becomes overwhelming. If he struggles or gets hurt, staying for another year becomes more attractive.
Sarkisian has reportedly told NFL contacts that he is preparing for both outcomes. Texas has been recruiting quarterbacks in the 2027 class as if Manning will be gone. They have also been planning offensive evolution around Manning being back for 2027.
The Manning family will make the right call. They always have. Peyton at Tennessee in 1997. Eli at Ole Miss in 2003. Arch at Texas in 2026. Each generation has handled the decision with the kind of patience and clarity that has defined the family for three generations.
Do not be surprised if Arch Manning is still wearing burnt orange when the 2027 NFL Draft happens next April. The Manning way is to take your time, and Texas is a pretty nice place to do it.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
