The most likely notable trade in the NFL between now and the November 10 deadline involves a former top-five pick who cannot get on the field for a team that keeps insisting he is not available.
Kayvon Thibodeaux is in the final year of his rookie contract, making $14.751 million, and he is buried on the Giants depth chart. Brian Burns and Abdul Carter are ahead of him. Rookie first-rounder Arvell Reese is competing for whatever snaps are left. There is no version of this roster where Thibodeaux plays like a premium edge rusher.
New York’s public position is that he is staying. NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported the Giants have “no interest” in moving him, citing teams that had called to gauge it. That is exactly what a front office says in September when it wants a second-round pick and does not want the rest of the league to know it is motivated.
Because the ask is real. The Giants reportedly want a second-rounder, and Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox does not expect them to lower it any time soon. That is an aggressive price for a rotational player on an expiring deal whose production has tailed off since his big 2023 season, and every team calling knows it.
The Patriots keep coming up, and the fit makes sense on paper. New England’s pass rush is one of its clearest weaknesses, and Thibodeaux is the rare available edge with real athletic traits and the draft pedigree that makes a coaching staff believe it can unlock him. ESPN’s Dan Graziano has laid out the realistic path: Thibodeaux plays well early, the Giants decide draft capital is worth more than a backup, and something comes together closer to the deadline.
That is exactly how I expect this ends, and here is the math that makes it close to inevitable. Thibodeaux is not getting extended in New York at anything resembling market rate with Burns and Carter already paid or on the rise. He walks in March either way. A second-round pick, or a third with conditions attached, is pure profit for a team that has already replaced him.
From Thibodeaux’s side, the incentive is even stronger. He needs snaps to get paid next offseason, and every week he spends as the third edge rusher in New York costs him real money in free agency. If he has any influence at all, he is pushing for this.
The one thing that kills the deal is injury luck. If Burns or Carter goes down in October, the Giants suddenly need Thibodeaux and the price to pry him loose jumps from a second-round pick to something nobody will pay. Pass rushers get hurt constantly, so that scenario is live.
My prediction: Thibodeaux gets moved before November 10, the Giants do not get the second-rounder they are asking for, and they settle for a third plus a conditional late pick. Both sides will call it a win, and Thibodeaux finally gets a real audition on a defense that actually needs him.
Hanging onto a 25-year-old who cannot get on the field and is leaving anyway is how good front offices turn assets into nothing. New York should figure that out by Halloween.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
