The internet has decided Jonathan Taylor is going to be a Chicago Bear before the November trade deadline. The reality is a lot messier than that. But the case for the trade is more interesting than most bold predictions.
ESPN’s Ben Solak listed a Taylor trade to Chicago among his ten bold predictions for the 2026 season. The framing was that the Colts would sell during a rough regular season and the Bears would swoop in to grab an elite back for a playoff push. Solak floated a $15 million cap number and suggested this could look like the Rams’ Myles Garrett trade from earlier this offseason.
Here is the case for Chicago. Ben Johnson has spent the last two seasons building the most efficient run scheme in football. Chicago’s rushing attack led the league in success rate last season. The line is quietly one of the best in the NFC. What they lack is a No. 1 back who breaks the second-level tackles and turns 8-yard runs into 30-yard runs.
Taylor is that back. He is 27, has two seasons of 1,600-plus rushing yards, and is coming off a season where he ran for 1,431 yards despite Anthony Richardson’s injury issues wrecking the Colts offense. He is entering the final year of his three-year, $42 million extension. Contract flexibility is real for whoever ends up with him.
Here is why it probably does not happen. The Colts have historically been unwilling to trade their best offensive player, even when their season goes sideways. Chris Ballard runs a “compete every year” front office. Selling Taylor would be a signal that the entire timeline is being rebuilt, and Ballard has not shown a willingness to do that yet.
The other issue is the Colts front office made big investments this offseason on defense. They traded for Sauce Gardner and are trying to build around Richardson-to-Nabers. Selling Taylor while making that kind of win-now investment on defense is contradictory. Ballard would have to fully change direction to make the trade make sense.
What Solak is really predicting is that Richardson gets hurt again, the Colts fall out of contention early, and Ballard has no choice but to sell short-term veterans for future picks. Taylor is the biggest chip. That would put Chicago at the front of the line.
The Bears’ actual roster is close to a playoff team. Caleb Williams took real steps forward last season. The receivers are functional. The line is deep. The defense finally has playmakers. Adding a back like Taylor to that setup could put them in the top three seeds in the NFC.
The cost is where it gets complicated. A rental starter at running back is not worth a first-round pick. It is probably worth a second and a conditional pick, plus salary cap gymnastics. That is a fair market rate for a two-time All-Pro at the position that ages the fastest.
Whether this actually happens depends on how the Colts play the first two months of the season. If Indianapolis is 4-3 heading into November, Ballard is not selling. If they are 2-5 with Richardson on the injured list, everything is on the table.
The Bears should be ready for either outcome. Adding Taylor would immediately make them a legitimate playoff contender. Not adding him means running back is still the biggest question mark on the roster heading into the postseason chase.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
