Robert Kraft rarely makes news in July. This week, he did.
The Patriots owner told reporters that New England has offered cornerback Christian Gonzalez a contract that would reset the market at his position. The current top corner deal belongs to Derek Stingley Jr., who signed a three-year, $90 million extension with Houston in the spring. That means Gonzalez is being offered something in the neighborhood of four years and $130 million with $80 million guaranteed.
Now the question is whether Gonzalez says yes.
Why the Patriots Are Offering This Much
Gonzalez is a top-three cornerback in football. He is 24 years old. He just made his first All-Pro team last season with six interceptions and 18 pass breakups. He is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and he is the exact kind of player you build a defense around for the next decade.
Losing him in free agency next spring would be a disaster. New England cannot afford to let their best defender walk when they are one of the youngest teams in the league and trying to build around Drake Maye.
Paying him now, even at a market-resetting number, is smarter than paying him later at an even higher number.
Why Gonzalez Might Wait
He is going to be a free agent at 25. If he plays one more season at an All-Pro level, he could hit the market and command $40 million per year on the open market. The Rams, Cowboys and Jets all have cap space and secondary problems.
The risk is injury. One torn ACL and the guaranteed money disappears. His agent is going to weigh that risk against the upside of hitting free agency, and there is no wrong answer.
The Comp Situation
Stingley got $30 million per year. Sauce Gardner is expected to reset the market again when the Jets extend him this offseason. Patrick Surtain II is also going to get paid.
Gonzalez fits right into that group. If he waits until after the season, he will be the top corner available in free agency, and teams are going to pay whatever it takes.
The Patriots are trying to get ahead of that. Offering him the top of the current market is a bet that he wants stability, that he loves New England, and that he does not want to risk his health playing one more season.
What This Means for the Patriots
If Gonzalez signs, the Patriots defense has a foundation for the next five years. Combine him with Kyle Dugger, Christian Barmore and the young pass rushers they drafted, and New England has a legitimately scary young defense.
Combine that with a healthy Drake Maye entering year three and a rebuilt offensive line, and you have a team that could win the AFC East as soon as this season.
If Gonzalez does not sign, the Patriots have to figure out how to keep him from the franchise tag. That means using it and dealing with the drama of a one-year, $19 million tender when everyone knows he wants a long-term deal.
The Prediction
Gonzalez signs before the season starts. The Patriots are offering top money, they have a rising quarterback, and they built a defense around him. There is no real reason to walk away from $80 million guaranteed to gamble on staying healthy for another year.
Expect the announcement in the next two weeks. Expect Gonzalez to become the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history. And expect New England to breathe a huge sigh of relief when the paperwork is signed.
Kraft rarely tips his hand in public. When he does, it usually means the deal is close to done.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
