AJ Dybantsa is going first overall. Said it himself. The BYU star told reporters this week he’s “100% sure” the Washington Wizards will use the No. 1 pick on him at the 2026 NBA Draft. That confidence is now backed up by the betting markets, the scouts, and just about every mock draft on the planet.
Dybantsa moved to a -200 favorite to go first overall the moment he declared. He now sits at -450. The Wizards won the lottery for the second time in franchise history after a 17-65 season. They have the keys. They’re handing them to a 6-foot-9 wing who put up the best scoring season in college basketball.
The Numbers Are Historic
Dybantsa averaged 25.5 points per game on 51% shooting in his lone year at BYU. That was the highest scoring average in Division I. He’s the first college player to average 25 and shoot above 50% while earning consensus All-American honors since Larry Bird did it for Indiana State in 1978-79. Those aren’t small comparisons.
The combine measurements only confirmed what scouts already knew. He has the physical tools to defend three positions in the NBA, score from anywhere on the floor, and grow into a primary offensive option. There’s nothing missing from his profile.
Why Washington Is the Perfect Fit
The Wizards are a pure rebuild. They have no veteran star expecting touches. They have no playoff pressure forcing them to play Dybantsa out of position. They have a young roster that can grow with him over the next five years. He’s going to get the ball from day one and the franchise is going to be patient.
That’s the most underrated benefit of being the No. 1 pick on a bad team. You get permission to make rookie mistakes. You get the playing time you need to develop. Dybantsa gets to focus on becoming the player he’s capable of being instead of trying to fit into a contender’s existing system.
The Tier Below Him Is Stacked Too
This draft is loaded at the top. Darryn Peterson is widely projected to go second to the Jazz. Cameron Boozer is locked in at three to the Grizzlies. Caleb Wilson and Mikel Brown Jr. round out a top tier of prospects that should all be impact players within a year.
That deep tier is what makes the lottery winners look so smart. Even the team picking fifth gets a legitimate star prospect. But Dybantsa is the prize. He’s the consensus top pick and the cleanest superstar projection at the top of the board.
The Draft Date Is Set
First round is Tuesday, June 23. Second round is Wednesday, June 24. Less than two weeks away. Dybantsa is going to walk across the stage, shake Adam Silver’s hand, and put on a Wizards hat. Then he’s going to fly to Washington and start the work of dragging that franchise out of its decade of irrelevance.
The Bigger Question
Can Dybantsa be the guy who restores the Wizards? Washington hasn’t been relevant since the John Wall era and even that era never produced real playoff success. The franchise needs a face. He could be that face.
But to do it, he needs Washington to draft and develop intelligently around him over the next three years. The Wizards’ front office has not exactly been a model of patient roster building in recent memory. If they nail the draft picks and stay disciplined in free agency, Dybantsa becomes their version of Anthony Edwards in Minnesota. If they don’t, he becomes another talented player on a bad team waiting to be traded in five years.
The Verdict
Dybantsa is right. He’s going first. He’s going to Washington. He’s going to be very good. The bigger question is whether the Wizards can build something around him before he asks out. The clock starts June 23.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
