Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals tips off Wednesday at 8:30 ET on ABC. The San Antonio Spurs host the New York Knicks at the AT&T Center. The Spurs are favored by 5.
That number is wild when you consider how the Knicks got here.
New York ripped through the East. Eleven straight wins to close the conference playoffs, by an average margin of 23.8 points. They did not just beat teams, they buried them. Jalen Brunson is playing the best basketball of his career. Karl-Anthony Towns is finally healthy and stretching the floor like Vegas predicted he would. OG Anunoby is locking down on the perimeter.
And they are still underdogs. Because Victor Wembanyama exists.
The 22-year-old just won Western Conference Finals MVP after dismantling Oklahoma City. He is averaging a stat line that should not be possible: points, rebounds, blocks, assists. He has guarded all five positions in this postseason. He has hit step-back threes. He has gone full Hakeem in the post. The Spurs went from a fringe playoff team last year to a Finals team this year because of him.
This is also a rematch nobody asked for. The Knicks last made the Finals in 1999, where they lost to a Spurs team with Tim Duncan and David Robinson. Now they get Wembanyama. The history is not on their side.
The key matchup is Towns versus Wembanyama. Towns is one of the best shooting bigs in the league. He spaces the floor in a way the Thunder simply could not. If Wemby is forced to chase him out to 28 feet, that opens the lane for Brunson to attack downhill.
San Antonio has Stephon Castle, the reigning Rookie of the Year, who has been a defensive pest all postseason. Putting him on Brunson for stretches will be the Spurs’ first adjustment. Devin Vassell has gotten healthier and can be a problem. Chris Paul, in his ageless veteran role, controls tempo.
The Knicks need to win Game 1. New York knows it. Stealing one in San Antonio flips the series math entirely.
The bet here is the under. Both teams play smart half court basketball. Wembanyama protects the rim. Tom Thibodeau wants to grind. This is not a track meet.
The pick is Spurs in 6. Wembanyama is a level above. But Knicks fans should not be embarrassed if their team wins it either. New York is closer than the spread suggests.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
