Jalen Duren was a max contract candidate three months ago. After what he did in the playoffs, he is closer to a five-year, $150 million guy than a five-year, $239 million guy. The Pistons just got an answer to a question they did not want to ask.
Duren is a restricted free agent this summer. Heading into the postseason, the conversation was about whether Detroit would offer him a max extension. He had averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds in the regular season on 65 percent shooting. He looked like a top-tier young center on the verge of his first All-Star nod. The Pistons were the top seed in the East. Everything pointed to a massive payday.
Then the playoffs happened. Duren averaged 10.2 points and 8.5 rebounds on 51.4 percent shooting. He was benched in the fourth quarter of a crucial game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Pistons lost in Game 7 of the second round to a Cavs team that was the lower seed. Detroit’s whole season ended a round earlier than the front office wanted.
That is the kind of postseason performance that changes the math on a contract negotiation. The Pistons were planning to commit massive long-term money to a 22-year-old center on the basis that he could be the second-best player on a championship-caliber team. The playoffs suggested he might not even be the third-best player on his own team in a series that mattered.
NBA executives are already warning Detroit that handing Duren a full max could derail the entire roster. The number on a max extension would be around $239 million over five years, with the supermax option pushing it to $287 million if Duren earns an All-NBA selection. That kind of money for a young center who just got benched in the fourth quarter of a Game 7 is the definition of an overpay.
The more sensible range looks like five years at $150 to $165 million. That still pays Duren like a top-15 center, which he probably is. It also leaves Detroit room to fill out a roster around Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, and the rest of their young core without committing themselves into a corner.
The trade speculation has started, too. Some analysts are floating scenarios where Detroit moves Duren before restricted free agency rather than risk a competitor signing him to an offer sheet they would have to either match or watch walk away for nothing. The Pistons have leverage as the team with right of first refusal, but they also have a young center who just had the worst run of his career at the worst possible time.
If you are Duren’s representation, you have to be furious at the timing. He spent the regular season doing exactly what you needed him to do to set up a max negotiation. Then he picked the worst eight games of his career to play in May. Now the comparable contracts you were going to point to in the negotiation have moved further out of reach.
The Pistons have to decide whether they trust the regular-season Duren or the playoff Duren. The honest answer is that they need to figure out which version shows up most often, because they cannot commit max money to the latter. They also cannot let a 22-year-old center with All-Star upside walk away.
The middle path is a deal in the $150 million range with team-friendly trade language. That gives Detroit cost certainty if Duren does not develop into the All-Star they thought they were drafting. It also gives Duren a real payday at an age where most players are still on their rookie deals.
Restricted free agency starts in July. Detroit has homework to do before then.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
