The Tarik Skubal trade rumors are not going away. The insider takes are also not lining up.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this week that the Tigers are trending toward trading Skubal before the August 3 deadline. Jon Heyman of the New York Post said the chances are rising and the odds of an extension are nil. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers said the Dodgers are likely to make a run. And then Jon Morosi said the Tigers are not in any hurry to make moves and Skubal is not going anywhere.
That is the modern MLB trade rumor industrial complex. Everyone has a source. Everyone has a take. Nobody fully agrees on what is actually happening inside the Tigers building.
Here is what is verifiable. Skubal is set to enter free agency after this season. The Tigers are 20-31 and sitting at the bottom of the AL Central. Detroit is going to be a seller. The question is whether Skubal is part of the sell off or whether the team holds him for one more playoff push attempt and lets him walk.
The financial math points to a trade. Skubal is going to want a contract north of $300 million when he hits free agency. He has Cy Young numbers. He is left handed. He is in his prime. He is going to get every penny. The Tigers have not historically been a team that pays at that level. The new ownership group has been more aggressive than previous Detroit regimes, but $300 million for a starting pitcher is a serious risk in any market.
The Dodgers fit is obvious. Los Angeles has been collecting starting pitching like baseball cards. They have a top heavy roster that is built to win now. They have the prospect capital to make a real offer. They have the financial flexibility to extend Skubal beyond his current deal. If the Tigers decide to trade, Los Angeles is the front of the line.
The Yankees are circling too. New York’s rotation has been a mess. The Yankees need a real ace. Skubal would slot in behind Gerrit Cole and give the team a true top of the rotation pair. The challenge is that the Yankees prospect pool is thinner than it was even two years ago. Brian Cashman would have to dig deep to put together an offer that beats the Dodgers.
The Mariners want Skubal because they have wanted ace level starting pitching for years and they keep getting close without closing the deal. Seattle has the prospect depth to make an offer that competes with anyone in the league. The question is whether the front office is willing to part with the prospects it would take.
The Tigers want to play this slowly. Rosenthal’s reporting and the Morosi pushback both point to the same conclusion. Detroit is going to wait until late July to make a decision. The team wants to see if anything happens in the standings. The team wants to see what offers actually materialize. The team wants to maximize value while not closing off the possibility of keeping Skubal for the rest of this year.
The risk of waiting is that Skubal hurts something. Pitchers get hurt. The trade value goes from massive to zero with one elbow scan. Detroit knows this. That is why some inside the organization want the trade done sooner rather than later.
Skubal will be traded. The Tigers are not contenders. The contract math does not work. The only real question is which team and what the prospect package looks like.
Watch the Dodgers. Watch the Yankees. Watch the Mariners. The next six weeks are going to be loud.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
