Tarik Skubal is coming off elbow surgery, sitting on the Tigers’ injured list, and has more than two months before the MLB trade deadline. He is already the most talked about pitcher in baseball.
Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported this week that Skubal is 90 percent likely to be traded before the August 3 deadline. Ken Rosenthal followed that up with a similar take, saying Skubal is trending toward being moved. The Tigers have not officially confirmed they are open to dealing him, but the smoke is everywhere.
The Dodgers have emerged as the clear favorites. Multiple insiders have indicated that Los Angeles is in the strongest position to land Skubal, with a combination of prospect depth and roster flexibility that few other teams can match.
The Dodgers are the team that always lands the guy. They have done it with Mookie Betts. They did it with Shohei Ohtani. They are doing it again with Skubal. The pattern is so consistent at this point that you almost have to expect them to win every star sweepstakes that opens up.
The Yankees are the other team most often mentioned. New York reportedly wants Skubal but is not willing to part with their top pitching prospects. Their front office has been clear that Carlos Lagrange and Elmer Rodriguez are not on the table. That stance might cost them.
The Padres, Rays, and a handful of other contenders are also reportedly involved at varying levels. None of them have the kind of farm system that scares the Tigers off the Dodgers offer.
So why are the Tigers even thinking about moving Skubal? The simple answer is that Detroit is not a near-term contender, and Skubal is a year away from free agency. The math is brutal. Teams that are not winning have to extract maximum value from their stars while they still can.
The complicated answer is that Skubal might also want out. The Tigers have not been able to extend him on a long-term deal, and his Boras Corp representation has historically pushed players to test free agency. If Skubal is going to leave anyway, the Tigers may as well get something for him.
The Aaron Judge injury news might also accelerate the timeline for the Yankees. Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently pondered whether New York would consider a Spencer Jones-Ben Hess package, especially if they think they can sign Skubal long term. That kind of deal is the type of compromise that could land him in the Bronx, but only if the Dodgers offer somehow falls apart.
The injury question is real. Skubal is recovering from elbow surgery and has not pitched in months. Any team trading for him is betting on a clean recovery and a quick return to ace form. That is a real risk for a player owed serious money on his way to free agency.
The Dodgers are not afraid of that risk. They have the depth to absorb a slow start, and they have the financial flexibility to extend him after the season. They are the team built to take this kind of bet.
The deadline is August 3. The Skubal sweepstakes will define the entire trade market.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
