The Tarik Skubal trade rumors are getting louder by the day, and one of the most plugged-in voices in baseball just put a number on how likely a move actually is. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman estimated the odds at 90 percent.
Skubal is the best pitcher who could realistically change uniforms at the August 3 trade deadline. He has won the AL Cy Young Award in each of the past two seasons. He is under team control through 2026, which gives him both immediate impact and additional postseason value to whoever acquires him. He is also currently on the injured list following minor elbow surgery, which the Tigers have insisted is not a long-term issue.
The Tigers are the reason the rumors exist. Detroit was supposed to be a postseason contender in 2026 after exceeding expectations the previous year. The team has gone 6-21 since May 4, and that collapse has flipped the entire trade deadline outlook. A pitching staff anchored by a healthy Skubal is one thing. A pitching staff trying to win without him on a roster that is 15 games out of first place is a different conversation entirely.
Heyman pegging the trade probability at 90 percent is not a wild guess. The Tigers’ front office under Scott Harris has been deliberate about not paying retail for declining roster pieces, and Skubal is exactly the kind of asset whose value will never be higher than it is right now. Trading him this summer brings back a haul of young talent that could accelerate the next contention window.
The likely landing spots are obvious. The Dodgers always need pitching and have the prospect capital. The Yankees just lost Aaron Judge for at least six weeks and are looking for ways to keep their season alive. The Blue Jays are aggressive in close races. The Padres have the prospect depth and the willingness to take big swings. The Phillies and Cubs have also been mentioned by industry sources.
The price will be enormous. Any deal for Skubal would have to start with multiple top-100 prospects and likely include a Major League piece. Tigers president Scott Harris will not move him for anything less.
The smart bet is Skubal is in a different uniform by August 4. Heyman thinks so, the industry thinks so, and the math thinks so. The only question is who wins the bidding.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
