Tarik Skubal Is 90% Likely to Be Traded, Per Jon Heyman. The Dodgers and Cubs Are Circling
The Detroit Tigers are trading Tarik Skubal. That’s not a rumor anymore. That’s a near-certainty. MLB Network insider Jon Heyman put the chances at “90 percent” on his latest broadcast. The two-time Cy Young winner is going to land in a new uniform before the August 3 trade deadline.
The Tigers are too far back in the AL Central. Skubal is too valuable on an expiring contract. The Scott Boras-led free agency market is going to demand a number Detroit will never match. Every rational front office around baseball has reached the same conclusion: trade Skubal now or let him walk for nothing in the offseason.
Why It’s 90% and Not 100%
The 10% accounts for the possibility that Scott Harris and the Tigers wake up on July 31 and decide the prospect haul isn’t worth it. That’s the only realistic path to Skubal staying. Boras already shut down the extension conversation. Skubal is going to test free agency. The Tigers know they aren’t bringing him back.
The Cy Young winners on Boras-led free agencies always reset the pitching market. Skubal’s deal is going to be in the $35-40 million per year range. Detroit doesn’t pay starting pitchers that kind of money. Their entire roster construction philosophy is built around homegrown arms on cheap deals.
The Dodgers Are the Favorites
Heyman believes the Dodgers will go all-in on Skubal as they chase a third straight World Series title. The math makes sense. Los Angeles has the prospect depth to make the trade. They have the cap space and luxury tax willingness to take on his salary. They have a roster that can win a championship with him.
The Dodgers also have Shohei Ohtani potentially limited to DH duties more often if the knee inflammation persists. Adding Skubal stabilizes the rotation behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto and any innings cap on Ohtani. The trade fits multiple needs at once.
The Cubs Are the Wild Card
Heyman called the Cubs his “number one team” to trade for Skubal. That’s a notable shift. Chicago has been building toward this moment. Jed Hoyer has prospect capital. The Cubs have a contention window now and into the next few years.
If the Cubs are willing to part with their top prospects, they can outbid the Dodgers in raw talent. The question is whether Hoyer is willing to bet on the all-in package. The Cubs front office has been conservative historically. Skubal is the kind of player you break that conservatism for.
The Other Suitors
The Orioles, Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox have all been mentioned. Baltimore has a sneaky case because they have the prospect capital and they desperately need an ace. Philadelphia and New York have rotation depth but might still pursue. Boston is a wild card because they have prospects but also have their own internal pitching depth.
The market is going to be a real auction. The Tigers should be able to extract a haul that resets their farm system entirely. Three to four top-100 prospects is the realistic ask. The team that gives that up better win the World Series.
What This Means for Detroit
The Tigers are 25-46. The season is over. Trading Skubal for a major prospect package becomes the centerpiece of a multi-year rebuild that probably keeps Detroit out of contention until 2028 at the earliest. That’s a real cost for a franchise that just spent two years convincing fans they were ready to compete.
Scott Harris is going to take the heat. He probably deserves some of it. The Tigers’ decision-making over the last 18 months hasn’t matched the on-field reality. Trading Skubal at least returns assets they can build with. The alternative is losing him for nothing in November.
The Verdict
Skubal lands with the Dodgers. The Cubs come close but the Dodgers’ overall package wins out. Los Angeles wins their third straight title. The Tigers reset their farm and start the slow climb back to relevance. The clock starts now and the August 3 deadline is going to be the most-watched in years.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
