The Tarik Skubal trade sweepstakes is heating up, and the Dodgers are looking more and more like the team that will land the Tigers ace before Monday’s deadline.
Detroit is expected to trade Skubal by the August 3 deadline, per multiple reports. ESPN’s Jeff Passan called it a foregone conclusion earlier this week. The Tigers have been aggressive in signaling their intent to sell, most notably by scratching Casey Mize from Friday’s start to protect his trade value.
Skubal is the biggest arm on the market. The two-time AL Cy Young winner is having another dominant season. He is under team control only through this year, which is why the Tigers are choosing to cash him in now rather than lose him to free agency for nothing next spring.
The list of interested teams is long. The Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Brewers, Rays, Cubs, and Phillies have all been linked to Skubal in recent days. That is essentially every contender with a shot at winning a title. All of them need pitching help, and all of them have the prospects to potentially get a deal done.
Los Angeles keeps looking like the frontrunner, though. The Dodgers have the deepest farm system among the interested teams. They have the money to extend Skubal after the season. They have the recruitment appeal of playing for the defending World Series champion. And they have the pitching need that makes an aggressive move feel necessary.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been dominant when healthy, but he has been up and down with injuries. Shohei Ohtani is not pitching this season. Tyler Glasnow has been managing his own body issues. Blake Snell has been solid but not overpowering. The Dodgers need another true ace to slot in behind Yamamoto for October, and Skubal fits perfectly.
Sportbook analyst rankings have Los Angeles as the clear favorite to land Skubal. Passan noted that people around the league would be shocked if Skubal ended up anywhere except LA. The Dodgers seem to have all the leverage in these talks.
Part of that leverage is exactly the free agency piece. Skubal is going to sign a massive contract next winter, likely in the $300 million range. The Dodgers can offer him the security of a long-term deal in a city he might already love playing in after a few months there. Other teams cannot make that promise as convincingly.
The Yankees are the other name to watch, but the fit is complicated. New York’s rotation is not their biggest issue right now. Aaron Judge is dealing with a fractured rib that is healing slowly. The lineup needs help. Spending significant prospect capital on Skubal instead of a bat might be the wrong call for that team’s specific problems.
The Braves have been quiet publicly, but they are always in the mix on big pitching trades. Atlanta could use a top-tier arm to pair with Chris Sale and Spencer Strider. The prospects might not match up as well with Detroit’s asks, though.
The Cubs are an interesting dark horse. Chicago has climbed into contention this season and has a good farm system. Adding Skubal would signal to the fanbase that the front office is serious about winning now. The problem is that the Cubs might not have quite enough top-end prospects to outbid the Dodgers.
The final variable is what happens with Skubal himself between now and Sunday night. If he pitches lights out this weekend, it makes the Tigers’ asking price even higher. If he gives up a bunch of runs, some teams might get scared off. His next start is going to be watched by every general manager in baseball.
Monday afternoon should be electric. Skubal is going to end up in a new uniform. The betting money says it will be Dodger blue.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
