The Tarik Skubal trade is no longer a rumor. It is now closer to a math problem.
MLB insider Jon Heyman put the chances of a Skubal trade this summer at 90 percent during an appearance on Wednesday. That is about as high as Heyman ever goes on a trade prediction, and it tells you where the league consensus has landed on the reigning AL Cy Young winner.
“I’m going to say it’s 90 percent that he gets traded,” Heyman said.
The Detroit Tigers have not publicly indicated they want to move Skubal. They actually just swept the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-game series, with the Rays entering Wednesday holding the best record in the American League. By traditional measures, Detroit is contending. They are in playoff position. They have a chance to make a real run.
That is why a Skubal trade still feels jarring to a lot of fans. But the front office math is unambiguous. Skubal is set to hit free agency at the end of next season. He is going to command a contract north of $400 million from somebody, probably a Dodgers or a Mets or a Yankees. The Tigers know they cannot match that. They also know that if they hold him through the deadline and lose in the wild card round, they have wasted the asset.
The four finalists that have been named as the most likely trade partners are the Toronto Blue Jays, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Yankees, and the San Diego Padres. Each of those teams has the prospect depth and the financial flexibility to absorb a Skubal trade and the resulting decision about whether to extend him.
The Dodgers are the obvious favorite. They always are. They have the best farm system, the deepest payroll, and a pattern of acquiring elite pitchers at the deadline. If Skubal is up for grabs, Andrew Friedman is going to be at the front of the line.
The Yankees situation is interesting because they need rotation help right now and could justify pushing in their chips to chase the Red Sox in the East. The Blue Jays are an underdog candidate because they are already sub-.500 and a Skubal acquisition would be more about 2027 than this year.
The Padres are the wild card. A.J. Preller has been the most aggressive trader in baseball for years, and Skubal would slot in behind their existing rotation as the kind of ace they need to seriously chase the Dodgers in the NL West. The question for San Diego is what they have left to trade after dealing prospects to land Mason Miller earlier this year.
Skubal is currently working back from a procedure to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He is expected to go on a rehab assignment soon and could be back with the Tigers around mid-June. That actually helps the trade market. A return start or two before the All-Star break would let interested teams see that the elbow is fully healed before pushing in their chips.
The deadline is August 3 at 6 p.m. ET. That gives about eight weeks for the rumors to intensify. Expect Heyman’s 90 percent number to creep closer to 99 percent as the date approaches.
The Tigers know what they have. They also know what they cannot keep. That is how the best aces in baseball end up changing uniforms at midseason.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
