The Detroit Tigers are 11 games under .500. Tarik Skubal is healthy. The math is brutal. Baseball’s most coveted trade chip is almost certainly going to be moved before the August 3 deadline.
Skubal is the two-time defending AL Cy Young winner. He is also a free agent at the end of the year and has made it clear through his representation that he is not signing an extension during the season. The Tigers can either trade him for a haul or watch him walk for a compensatory pick.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan pegs the odds of a Skubal trade at 85 percent. That feels low. The Tigers’ playoff odds are in the single digits. Holding Skubal is not making them contenders this year, and it is costing them a franchise altering return.
The teams are lining up. The Atlanta Braves are emerging as a sleeper, but a deal would likely cost them two top 10 prospects. The Yankees, Brewers, Cubs, and Dodgers are all in the mix. The Tigers reportedly want major league ready talent, not just prospects, which narrows the field of teams that can put together a winning offer.
The Yankees are an interesting case. New York has been linked to Skubal for months, but the Tigers’ relationship with the Yankees front office is reportedly icy after past dealings. Detroit will entertain a Bronx package only if it blows everyone else’s offer out of the water.
The Dodgers are the dream landing spot for Skubal as a player. Pairing him with a Dodgers rotation that already features Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, and Tyler Glasnow would give Los Angeles the most fearsome October rotation in baseball. The cost would be brutal, but the Dodgers have the prospect depth to pull it off.
Skubal is dominant. He returned from elbow surgery this season and has not missed a beat. He has a Cy Young pedigree, big game experience, and the kind of left handed power arm that wins playoff series. He is the best rental in baseball, and he might be the best rental in a decade.
The Tigers have to maximize this trade. Scott Harris has built a competitive infrastructure in Detroit, but the team needs another wave of talent to take the next step. A Skubal trade is the moment that sets up the next phase.
Expect Detroit to take this down to the wire. Every contender is going to be in on Skubal, and the Tigers can play them against each other for two months. The final price might end up being the largest return for a pitcher since the Mookie Betts trade.
If a deal does not happen, it would be the surprise of the decade. The Tigers know what they are sitting on. They will not waste this.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
