Will the Tigers Trade Tarik Skubal? Cubs, Braves, and Rays All Circling With Deadline Looming
The biggest trade deadline domino in baseball is Tarik Skubal. And the market for the two-time Cy Young winner is officially heating up.
The Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, and Tampa Bay Rays are all expected to be strong suitors for Skubal if the Detroit Tigers decide to trade him, according to a fresh report from Bob Nightengale. The August 3 deadline is less than three weeks away. And Detroit front office has some big decisions to make.
Here is the setup. Detroit is 44-52. They are 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League. FanGraphs gives them a 27 percent chance to reach the postseason. That is not zero. But it is also not exactly promising.
Skubal is in his walk year. There is basically no chance he re-signs with Detroit. He will hit free agency in the offseason and immediately become the top starting pitcher on the market.
Trading him now maximizes the return. Waiting to see if the Tigers make a run and then losing him for nothing in free agency would be catastrophic.
Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has already made it clear that Chicago is going all-in on this year. They have the resources. They have the farm system. They can put together a package that Detroit cannot refuse. Skubal joining Justin Steele at the top of the Cubs rotation would give Chicago the best pitching staff in the National League.
The Braves are the sneaky contender. Atlanta is playing catch-up in the NL East after a rough first half. They need pitching help. They also have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball with the ability to package prospects at multiple positions. President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos loves a big swing at the deadline.
The Rays are the wild card. Tampa Bay is not usually in the market for rental aces. They are cost-conscious and prospect-heavy. But Rays scouts have loved Skubal for years, and the front office has reportedly been active in talks. Getting a few months of a Cy Young winner at a relatively affordable price might be a move even the Rays make.
The Dodgers and Yankees are also lurking, though both teams have some questions about their prospect capital and whether they want to commit to a rental.
Skubal himself has been dominant when healthy. He is 5-5 with a 3.09 ERA and 3.06 FIP through 13 starts, averaging 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He missed some time earlier this year with an elbow issue. He has looked completely fine since returning.
The medical concerns are the one thing that could tank his trade value. Elbow issues in pitchers are always scary. Any team acquiring Skubal is going to want extensive medical checks. Any team hesitating could lose out.
Tigers GM Scott Harris is not going to give Skubal away. He is going to demand a package that includes multiple top-100 prospects and probably a big-league piece. That is the market for a rental Cy Young winner in his prime.
The question is whether any team meets that price. If nobody does, Detroit could hold onto Skubal, make one more push for the wild card, and then let him walk. That would be the worst outcome, but it is on the table.
The next three weeks are going to be fascinating. Skubal trade market will define the entire deadline. Every other move happens downstream of what Detroit decides.
Buckle up. This one is going to move quickly.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
