Tarik Skubal’s Recovery Is Already Ahead of Schedule and the Tigers Are Quietly Excited
Tarik Skubal had elbow surgery on May 6. Less than two weeks later, he was throwing bullpens. The Tigers’ two-time Cy Young winner is on a recovery pace that doesn’t exist in the standard medical playbook.
Skubal threw his second bullpen session at Comerica Park on Monday. The Tigers transferred his rehab from their Lakeland spring training complex to Detroit on the same day, allowing him to work directly with pitching coach Chris Fetter.
This is happening fast. Real fast.
The Surgery Details
Skubal underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies, reportedly a bone chip, from his left elbow. The procedure is being called a NanoNeedle Scope, and it’s one of the less invasive options available for elbow cleanups.
The traditional recovery for arthroscopic elbow work is six to eight weeks before a pitcher returns to throwing competitive innings. Tommy John surgery is 12 to 18 months. The NanoNeedle Scope is supposed to dramatically compress the timeline.
Skubal is testing the upper limits of that compressed timeline. He played catch within a week of the procedure. He was on a mound within 10 days. He’s now thrown two bullpen sessions in less than two weeks.
What AJ Hinch Is Saying
Tigers manager AJ Hinch has been careful to keep expectations measured. “Step by step, we aren’t trying to get ahead of ourselves,” Hinch said. “He’s already done his second bullpen, and that was done at a pace that could never have been predicted. Every day we are talking to the doctor, we are trying to put more on his plate to challenge the historical ways of how long these injuries take.”
That last sentence is the key one. The Tigers are not just letting Skubal recover at his own pace. They’re actively pushing him, in consultation with the medical staff, to see how quickly the body can come back.
The reward is potentially having one of the best pitchers in baseball back in the rotation by mid-June or early July. The risk is reinjury. The Tigers are betting that the risk-reward profile favors aggression.
Why the Tigers Need Him
Detroit has not been bad without Skubal. They’ve stayed above .500. Tarik Hutson, Jack Flaherty, and the rest of the rotation have held the line. But the difference between a Tigers team with Skubal and a Tigers team without him is the difference between a playoff team and a wild-card contender.
Skubal is a top-three pitcher in baseball when healthy. He has been the Cy Young winner in each of the last two seasons. He’s the kind of arm that you build a postseason rotation around, and the Tigers have legitimate aspirations to make a deep October run.
Getting him back ahead of the All-Star break would give the team the runway to build him up gradually through the second half and have him at full strength for September and October. That’s the dream timeline. It’s also looking possible.
The Skubal Trade Question
One of the storylines that surrounded Skubal at the deadline last year and could come back into focus this summer is the trade question. He has another year of team control after this season. The Tigers are not in a hurry to extend him. The non-Mike Trout contract market for elite pitchers has been brutal in recent years.
If the Tigers fall out of contention by July, they might field calls. The argument for trading Skubal is that you could get a haul of prospects. The argument against trading him is that he’s the best player on the team and the Tigers are not in a position to throw away a competitive window.
His recovery progress is going to factor into that decision. The faster he comes back and the more dominant he looks, the more leverage the Tigers have either to keep him or to move him.
The Domino Effect
Skubal’s surgery has now been replicated by Blake Snell of the Dodgers, who is having a similar procedure on his elbow this week. The success of Skubal’s recovery is going to influence how other teams handle similar issues going forward.
If the NanoNeedle Scope continues to deliver the kind of compressed recovery timelines we’re seeing with Skubal, the procedure is going to become the new standard for elbow cleanups across baseball. That’s a meaningful development for the sport, where pitcher injuries have been a constant issue.
For now, the Tigers will keep monitoring Skubal day by day. The next step is facing live hitters. After that, a rehab assignment. After that, a return to the rotation. He’s not days away. He might be weeks away. He’s not months away anymore, and that’s all the Tigers needed to hear.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
