The Miami Marlins know what is coming. They know it because everyone in baseball has been telling them.
Sandy Alcantara is the top trade candidate at the 2026 deadline. Every front office insider polled by MLB.com last week put him at the top of the most-likely-to-move list. The Cubs, Padres, and Blue Jays have all been linked. The Dodgers will almost certainly call. The Phillies might come back for a second pass after missing on him last summer.
The Marlins, for the second year in a row, have to decide whether they are finally going to pull the trigger.
Alcantara Is Pitching Better Than the ERA Suggests
The 30-year-old right-hander has a 4.00 ERA on the surface. That number does not look like ace material. But the underlying stuff tells a different story.
Alcantara is back to throwing his sinker at 98 mph. His changeup, the pitch that won him the 2022 Cy Young, has been a put-away weapon all season. He leads the National League in innings pitched at 69.2 and has faced the most batters of any starter in baseball at 292.
The volume is the tell. The Marlins are letting him pitch deep into games because they trust his arm. After Tommy John surgery sidelined him for all of 2024 and limited him to a bumpy 2025, Alcantara has built himself back to a true workhorse starter.
The rough patch is real. He has allowed 15 earned runs over his last four starts and the ERA has crept up. But the swing-and-miss stuff is still elite. The walk rate is the best of his career. He is striking out batters at a higher rate than he did during his Cy Young season.
Translation: any contender getting Alcantara is getting a true No. 2 starter with a chance to be a No. 1 in October.
The Contract Is the Real Selling Point
Alcantara is owed the balance of his $17 million 2026 salary and is signed to a $21 million club option for 2027 with a $2 million buyout. That is a tradeable contract. Any team acquiring him gets a controllable ace for the postseason run and the 2027 season at a reasonable rate. The buyer can also decline the 2027 option and walk away if Alcantara struggles.
Compare that to the rental options. Most of the available starters at the deadline are going to be free agents in November. The Marlins have a starting pitcher who can anchor a rotation for 18 months. That is why every contender is calling.
Why the Cubs Are the Favorites
Chicago is sitting just behind Milwaukee in the NL Central and has the farm system to make a serious offer. The Cubs missed on Garrett Crochet last summer when they refused to part with their top prospect Owen Caissie. They will not make that mistake twice.
Bleacher Report has tagged the Cubs as the most likely landing spot. Their rotation has been solid but lacks an ace, and Justin Steele is on the IL with elbow soreness that the team is treating cautiously. Adding Alcantara behind Shota Imanaga would give the Cubs a legitimate one-two punch in October.
San Diego is the wild card. The Padres always seem to swing on the big arm at the deadline, and A.J. Preller has the prospects to match anyone’s offer. The Blue Jays, who are below .500 and not really in a position to add, might still be tempted because they are reportedly committed to making a postseason push regardless of where they sit in early August.
The Marlins’ Move
Peter Bendix has built a Marlins front office that does not romanticize its veteran players. Last year, Miami was a seller. The year before, the team was a seller. This year, with the Marlins again sitting near the bottom of the standings, they will be a seller.
The question is whether Bendix can get the kind of return Alcantara should command. Last summer, he held the line on Alcantara even though the market was active because the offers were not what he wanted. This year, with two years of control on the table and the contender list expanding, the Marlins should be able to get a top-25 prospect plus a couple of secondary pieces.
August 3 is the deadline. The phone is ringing already. Bendix has 68 days to listen.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
