Twenty of the league’s 30 teams entered Monday either in playoff position or within five games of a spot. Two thirds of Major League Baseball still has something to play for in September.
That number sounds like a triumph for competitive balance. Look closer at where those 20 teams actually sit and a different picture shows up.
Start in the National League, where the top is already settled in everything but name. The Brewers own the best record in baseball, powered by Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski. Milwaukee, the Dodgers, the Braves and the Cubs have all nearly locked up their postseason places. Four spots, effectively spoken for, with weeks left on the schedule.
Atlanta entered September with a 4.0-game division lead over Philadelphia, and the Cubs and Phillies sit atop the NL wild card with 5.0 games of breathing room. Those are not gaps that close by accident. They close only if somebody collapses.
So where is the actual NL race? It is at the very bottom of the bracket. The Padres hold the final NL wild-card spot with the Diamondbacks 0.5 games back. That is the whole thing. One half game, one spot, and everyone else either comfortable or too far away to matter.
I find that more compelling than a crowded field would be. A five-team scramble produces noise. A two-team fight over a half game produces real baseball, where every single game changes the standings and neither club can afford a bad weekend. San Diego and Arizona are going to spend the next few weeks scoreboard watching each other, and that is the most tension available in the National League right now.
The American League has more genuine movement. The Rays lead the AL East by 4.5 games over New York, with the Yankees second and holding the top AL wild-card spot. The Red Sox are also positioned to make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay leading that division by that margin is the most interesting fact in the league. The Rays are ahead of the Yankees while the Yankees are good enough to hold the best wild-card position in the conference, which means New York is not underperforming. Tampa Bay is simply beating them.
The Yankees’ situation is the one I would be least comfortable with if I were a fan. Holding the top wild-card spot is fine on its own. Holding it while chasing a division you trail by 4.5 games means the most likely path to October involves winning a short series on the road rather than skipping one. Every game between now and the end is about closing that gap or accepting the harder road.
Boston being positioned to get in adds the layer that makes the AL East the best division story in baseball, three teams from one division all in the picture at once.
Here is my honest verdict on the “20 teams alive” framing. It is technically true and it oversells the drama. Being within five games of a spot in September is not the same as having a real chance, and a lot of those clubs are alive in the way a math problem is alive.
The races worth your attention are narrower and better. The half game between San Diego and Arizona. The 4.5 games between Tampa Bay and New York. Everything else is either decided or pretending.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
