Kyle Tucker signed a four-year, $240 million deal with the Dodgers last offseason, complete with a $64 million signing bonus, $30 million in deferrals and opt-outs after the second and third years. The Blue Jays had offered him 10 years and $350 million. The Mets came in at four years and $220 million.
Toronto’s was the only true long-term offer on the table. Tucker turned it down to chase higher annual value and the freedom to hit free agency again in two years.
One season in, that looks like the wrong call.
The 2026 Season Has Been a Mess
Tucker has been sitting around a .226 average with a .686 OPS, 12 home runs, 59 RBI and 10 steals through 133 games. For a player who was one of the five best hitters in baseball entering free agency, that is a full-blown collapse.
The splits are ugly in a specific way. He has hit around .192 at Dodger Stadium and .271 on the road, which is how a player who signed the biggest contract of the winter ends up getting booed by his own home crowd.
There are reasons. He fractured a hand in June and played through it, which lines up almost exactly with the slump that ate July and August. Then a calf strain cost him most of September. He also left a June game against the Twins with low back spasms.
Injuries explain the season. They do not undo it.
Why the Bet Made Sense on Paper
Here is what Tucker was thinking. Ten years and $350 million works out to $35 million a year, which is below what an elite outfielder should command. His Dodgers deal pays $60 million a year on average, the highest AAV of any position player deal that winter.
Two strong seasons and he opts out in his early thirties with $120 million already banked and another nine-figure contract waiting. Meanwhile he is playing for the reigning World Series champion instead of in the AL East.
The Dodgers do not normally give opt-outs. They gave Tucker two, which is how badly they wanted him and how much leverage he had.
It was a rational bet by a player who had been durable and excellent for years. It just required 2026 to go according to plan, and it did not.
Where He Stands Now
Tucker is not opting out after 2027 unless something dramatic changes. A season like this one followed by a merely decent one leaves him choosing between the guaranteed money he already has and a market that has seen a fractured hand, a calf strain and back spasms in a single year.
Toronto’s offer would have covered him through his entire decline phase. That is the part players undervalue when they are healthy and the market is hot.
Now the flip side, because he is not finished. Tucker is still in his prime, and hand fractures wreck swings in ways that resolve over a winter. Come back healthy, hit .280 with 30 homers in 2027, and this entire conversation disappears.
He also still has two opt-outs and a roster around him that wins regardless of what he does. Nobody is asking Tucker to carry the Dodgers.
But the question was whether he made the right call, and the honest answer right now is no. He traded six years of guaranteed money for annual value and flexibility, then immediately had the season that makes flexibility worthless. Toronto dodged nothing here. Toronto offered the deal that would have protected him, and he said no.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
