Kyle Schwarber’s Historic Home Run Pace Has the Phillies Slugger Chasing 70 Bombs in 2026
Kyle Schwarber is on a home run pace that the league has not seen in 25 years, and he is doing it without any of the asterisks attached to the players who held the records before him. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger hit his 20th home run of the 2026 season this week, doing so in the team’s 49th game. That is the earliest any player in Major League Baseball history has reached 20 home runs.
The previous record was held by Luis Gonzalez, who hit 20 by May 17 in 2001. Schwarber beat the date. He is also only the 18th player in MLB history to hit 20 home runs through a team’s first 49 games, and the first to do it since Josh Hamilton in 2012. The list of names ahead of him on the historical pace chart is short and famous.
The full-season projection is the part that has everyone in baseball paying attention. Schwarber is currently on pace for 66 home runs in 2026. Some analytic models that adjust for park factors and matchup data have him as high as 70. The only player to ever hit 70 in a season was Mark McGwire in 1998, and Barry Bonds was the only one to ever beat that at 73 in 2001. Both of those seasons came in the heart of MLB’s performance enhancing drug era.
Schwarber’s pace is being treated very differently. He is 33 years old, has been with the Phillies for several seasons, and has built his reputation as one of the most consistent left-handed power hitters in the game. He hit 56 home runs in 2025. He is in the prime of his career as a designated hitter, and he gets to take advantage of the bandbox dimensions in Citizens Bank Park multiple times per week.
The historical context makes this all the more impressive. Through 49 games, the all-time leaders in home runs are Mark McGwire in 1998 with 25 and Barry Bonds in 2001 with 25. Both of those players ended up setting the single-season record. Schwarber is five back at the same point, which is well within range of the pace either of them maintained.
The conversation about whether he could actually hit 70 is starting to get serious. Sportsbooks have already moved his over/under for total home runs from 45 at the start of the season to over 60. The Phillies have started incorporating him into team marketing for the rest of the schedule. National media outlets are sending crews to every Schwarber at-bat at home.
The Phillies are in first place in the NL East, and Schwarber is the engine of their offense. He is producing in a real way for a team with serious World Series aspirations. The Phillies have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, a deep lineup, and a manager in Rob Thomson who knows how to handle veterans. Schwarber is the cherry on top of a roster built to win in October.
The bigger question is whether his body holds up. Schwarber is durable. He has played 150 or more games in each of the last several seasons. But chasing a historic home run pace requires staying in the lineup every night, and any minor injury could derail the entire chase. The Phillies have managed his workload smartly so far, giving him an occasional half-day off in the field so that he can preserve energy for his swings.
The 67 home run mark would put him in a unique spot in baseball history. It would be the highest single-season home run total without steroid implications in the modern era of the sport. Roger Maris held the so-called clean record at 61 until he was passed by McGwire and Bonds. Aaron Judge hit 62 in 2022 to break that mark. Schwarber could blow past both numbers and set the new standard.
For now, the focus is just on the next game. Schwarber and the Phillies will play 100-plus more games before the season ends. Pitchers are going to start being more careful with him. Defenses are going to position differently. Opposing managers are going to walk him in spots where they would normally pitch. All of that is going to make the chase even harder.
But if anyone can sustain this pace, Schwarber is the right candidate. The Phillies slugger has a chance to do something historic this year, and the 20-homer milestone in 49 games is the loudest possible signal that it might actually happen.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
