The Boston Red Sox have a decision to make on Aroldis Chapman, and the answer is going to define their deadline. The 38 year old left hander has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball this season, and he is emerging as the most attractive bullpen piece available before August 3. The Red Sox are sitting on something every contender wants.
Chapman’s resurgence has been one of the best stories in baseball. After bouncing around several organizations in recent years, he signed with Boston on a one year deal looking like a veteran trying to extend his career. Instead he has reinvented himself. The fastball is back over 100 mph. The slider has been wicked. He has been used in the highest leverage spots and has rewarded every assignment.
His numbers are absurd. Sub 1.50 ERA. Strikeout rate north of 14 per nine. He has been one of the top three closers in baseball regardless of who you compare him to. For a team trying to make a deep October run, having that kind of bullpen weapon available is the kind of edge that can swing playoff series.
The Red Sox themselves are in a complicated spot. Boston has been competitive but not dominant. They are around the wild card race. They are not the obvious leader of the AL East. The smart play might be to sell Chapman at the deadline, take the prospect haul, and recalibrate for the future. The aggressive play would be to keep him and try to make a run.
The market for Chapman is going to be enormous. The Dodgers always need bullpen depth. The Yankees would be the most intriguing destination given his history with them and his familiarity with the staff. The Mets, Phillies, Giants, Padres, and Cubs are all reportedly engaged. The bidding could push prospects from the back of the top 100 lists into trade conversations.
Boston front office head Craig Breslow has been around the block. He knows how to value bullpen assets at deadlines. He played a role in similar trades during his playing days. He will make sure the Red Sox get fair value if they decide to move Chapman. The question is what fair value looks like when you have an elite reliever with multiple suitors and only six weeks of regular season remaining.
The downside of selling is real for a city that does not love rebuilding. Boston fans are spoiled by the 21st century success of the Red Sox. Trading away their most exciting player at the deadline tells the fanbase that the front office is preparing for the future, not the present. That comes with PR cost.
The downside of holding is also real. Chapman is on a one year deal. He is going to be a free agent. The Red Sox can extend him a qualifying offer in the offseason and recoup a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. The compensation pick is a fraction of what they could get in a deadline trade with multiple aggressive bidders.
For Chapman personally, this is the kind of moment that defines a late career. He has put together one of the most impressive comeback seasons in years. A trade to a contender gives him a chance to pitch in October again. He has lived for the postseason throughout his career and he has another chance at it if the Red Sox find the right deal.
The teams that need him most are the ones most likely to push the bidding. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been thin at points and Chapman would join Tanner Scott to give them an elite late inning duo. The Yankees would love the storyline of bringing him back. The Phillies have a need for left handed bullpen impact. The Mets would push their owner Steve Cohen to make another move.
The next month is going to be one of the more interesting Red Sox stretches in years. Chapman’s outings will be must watch baseball, both for fans and for scouts of the contending teams. The deadline is approaching. The decision is coming. The market is set up perfectly for Boston to maximize value if they decide to sell.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
