The Boston Red Sox are not making any commitments about what they will do at the August 3 trade deadline, but the league is already pricing in one likely outcome. Aroldis Chapman is going to get moved.
Chapman has been sensational in his second stint with the Red Sox, converting 28 consecutive save opportunities dating back to last season. The 38-year-old left-hander still throws 100 mph with regularity, and he is once again the best pure closer on the market.
Every contender wants him. The Phillies need a back-end arm. The Dodgers always need bullpen help. The Tigers, Brewers, and Padres all have postseason aspirations and bullpens that could use another high-leverage arm. Even teams not technically in the market for relievers will check in because Chapman in October has historically been one of the most dominant arms in baseball.
The Red Sox are not officially out of the AL East race, but they have been trending in the wrong direction. Boston is hovering around .500 with a starting rotation that has been inconsistent and a lineup that has not lived up to its preseason projections. The decision to sell hard pieces is not yet final, but holding Chapman through August makes very little sense if Boston falls further out of the picture.
Chapman is on a one-year deal worth $10.75 million. The Red Sox would owe roughly $3 million of that at the deadline depending on the trade date, which is an attractive financial profile for a buyer. Boston would also be selling a rental, which limits the return to mid-tier prospects rather than blue-chippers, but the return is real.
The smart bet is Chapman ends up in either Philadelphia or Los Angeles, the two teams most aggressive about closing the door in October. The smarter bet is that whoever gets him also reshapes their entire bullpen philosophy for the postseason, because plug-and-play closers of his caliber rarely come available with this much time left in the season.
Chapman is going to be moved. The only real question is which contender pays the highest price.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
