No. 1 Ohio State goes to Austin on Saturday night to face No. 4 Texas, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, and it is the only game on the Week 2 board that actually matters to the national picture. Both teams are 1-0. Both quarterbacks are already living inside the Heisman conversation. Both fan bases have been circling this date since last September, when these teams met in Columbus and combined for 21 points in a defensive slog.
That will not happen again. Week 1 made sure of it.
Julian Sayin threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another in Ohio State’s 56-3 demolition of Ball State. Arch Manning went 20-of-27 for 305 yards and four touchdowns in a 59-7 wipeout of Texas State. Both teams cleared 50 points. Both quarterbacks looked like the version of themselves everyone projected in August.
The problem with opening weeks is that nobody learns anything from them. Ball State and Texas State are not going to tell you whether a quarterback can handle third-and-8 with 100,000 people screaming in Darrell K Royal. This game will.
The Sayin Question
Sayin’s numbers were clean, but the more useful data point is who he was throwing to. Jeremiah Smith caught eight passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns, and he did all of it in the first half. Smith is the best receiver in college football and it is not particularly close. Sayin’s job on Saturday is partly just to get the ball to him against a Texas secondary that has been building toward exactly this test.
The bigger unknown is what happens behind Smith. Ohio State needs a second option to emerge, because Texas is not going to let Smith run free. If the Buckeyes cannot generate anything from the No. 2 receiver spot, this becomes a much harder night.
Manning’s Actual Test
Manning threw a bad interception in the end zone against Texas State, and Texas fans noticed. Fair enough. But the four touchdowns and the way he distributed the ball, Ryan Wingo with seven catches for 121 yards, Cam Coleman with 70 yards in his Longhorns debut, suggest an offense with more layers than last year’s version.
Manning has spent two years absorbing the weight of a last name. This is the game where the discourse either flips or hardens. He has home field, a full offseason as the unquestioned starter and a receiving corps that can win one-on-one matchups. There are no excuses left on the table.
The Pick
Take Ohio State. Not because Sayin is the better quarterback right now, that is a coin flip, but because the Buckeyes’ front seven remains the most disruptive unit either team will see before November. Texas has a revamped offensive line and the kind of quarterback who holds the ball an extra beat looking for the big play. That combination gets ugly fast against this defense.
Ohio State also has the psychological edge of having already won this matchup once. Ryan Day’s teams have historically struggled in exactly these environments, which is the strongest argument for Texas. But the roster gap on defense is real, and defense is what decided this matchup a year ago.
Ohio State 27, Texas 23. Manning plays well enough to keep his Heisman case alive. Sayin plays well enough to take the lead in it. And the loser is still very much a playoff team, which is the part everyone forgets in Week 2 hysteria.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
