Ohio State and Texas play each other in Austin next Saturday in a rematch of last year’s ugly 14-7 defensive slog, and this time both quarterbacks have a full season of starting experience behind them. This is the game of the year already, and we have not even hit mid-September.
Arch Manning enters year two as the Texas starter after a rookie campaign that had highs, lows, and one really painful moment in Columbus. He has clearly grown in the offseason. His footwork is cleaner in preseason tape, he is layering deep balls with better touch, and he looks more comfortable moving Sarkisian’s protection calls at the line.
Julian Sayin, on the other side, was similarly uneven as a first-year starter for Ohio State. He is more polished as a pure passer than Manning but does not have the same physical ceiling as a runner. This year he has a full offseason with Chip Kelly’s offense installed under him, and the Buckeyes’ receiver room might be the deepest in the country.
The matchup that decides this game is the Texas defensive front against Ohio State’s offensive line. Steve Sarkisian’s defense returns three of four starters up front, and they were the group that made Sayin miserable a year ago. If that same pressure package works, the Buckeyes are going to have another long night in the red zone.
Ohio State’s counter is going to be tempo and pre-snap motion. Kelly wants his line playing forward and his quarterback getting the ball out quickly. If the Buckeyes can get to third-and-short a few times early, the whole game changes.
My prediction is Texas wins at home by a field goal. Home crowd matters, Manning has more comfort in this offense than Sayin does in his, and the Texas run game is going to eat up more chunks than Ohio State’s front will admit. Something like 24-21 in a game that comes down to a fourth-quarter drive.
Both teams have College Football Playoff aspirations, and both will make the field even if they lose this game. The bigger implication is seeding and identity. The winner walks out of Austin as the presumptive No. 1 team in the country and the odds-on favorite for the SEC or Big Ten title. The loser has a lot of season left to figure things out.
What I love about this game is that both quarterbacks are the story. College football has been quarterback-driven for a decade now, and having two former five-star recruits face off in September with everyone healthy is a treat that does not happen often. The last time we got a marquee matchup with this much QB juice was probably Caleb Williams versus C.J. Stroud in the Rose Bowl a few years back.
The stakes are enormous, the venue is one of the best in the sport, and the storylines write themselves. If you have plans next Saturday afternoon, cancel them. This is the game to circle on the entire regular season calendar, and it is happening in Week 2.
Manning versus Sayin. Round two. Nobody should miss this.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
