Ohio State Opens as the Preseason No. 1. Is This Actually the Right Call?
Ohio State is the preseason No. 1 team in the country. That is not a controversial statement, but it is not a slam dunk one either.
On3’s expert poll dropped Tuesday with the Buckeyes at the top, edging out Oregon for the top spot. ESPN’s Top 25 also went with Ohio State at No. 1 with Texas, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama filling out the top five. The AP Poll officially drops August 17, but nobody expects the Buckeyes to be anywhere but at or near the top.
The case for Ohio State No. 1
The Buckeyes return the vast majority of the pieces from a team that made a deep playoff run last year. Ryan Day has a stable coaching staff. The quarterback room is settled. The receiver corps, led by Jeremiah Smith, is the best in college football and it is not close. That kid alone is going to be a Heisman contender.
The defensive line is elite. The secondary has depth. Ohio State recruits at a level that basically guarantees they are going to be in the top five every August, and this roster has enough returning production to justify the preseason ranking on its own merits.
The Big Ten also has won three straight national titles now. That matters. The conference has changed. Adding USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington a couple of years ago transformed it into a real gauntlet, and the Big Ten teams are stronger from the top than any other league right now.
The case against Ohio State No. 1
Texas got the most first-place votes in the On3 poll. Oregon got the second most. That tells you the experts are split. Texas has Arch Manning as a preseason Heisman favorite entering his first full year as starter with a loaded receiver group. Oregon has Dante Moore back at quarterback after briefly considering the NFL, and the Ducks have quietly built one of the best rosters in the country.
Georgia is Georgia. Kirby Smart always has a top-five team. Notre Dame is out for revenge after last season’s controversial playoff snub. Miami is coming off a run to the championship game and returns key pieces. Alabama, even in the post-Saban era, is still Alabama.
There is a real argument that six or seven teams have a legitimate case to be in the preseason top three. Ohio State just happens to be the one that most voters agreed on.
What the season looks like
The regular season is going to be brutal in the Big Ten. Ohio State has to play at Oregon, at Penn State, and against Michigan at the end of the year. Any of those games could tilt the whole season. If the Buckeyes go 12-0 in the regular season with wins over Oregon and Michigan, they are probably the No. 1 seed in the playoff.
If they slip up, the field opens up in a hurry. Texas, Oregon, Georgia, and Notre Dame are all going to be in the mix. The 12-team playoff format means there is a lot of runway for a team to lose a game and still make a deep run. But the No. 1 seed and the bye that comes with it is still the biggest prize.
What to watch
Preseason No. 1s often fall out of the top spot early. Last year’s preseason No. 1 was Georgia, and the Bulldogs did not make the national championship game. The year before, Georgia again, and that one worked out better but the Dawgs still lost a game.
Ohio State’s schedule is manageable early. They open at home against a decent nonconference opponent, then get into Big Ten play. If they can survive September and October without a loss, the November stretch is going to define the year.
Bottom line: Ohio State at No. 1 makes sense on paper. Whether it holds through 12 regular season games is the real question. Oregon and Texas are right there. Georgia is always right there. The margin is thin at the top. But the Buckeyes deserve the benefit of the doubt after everything they returned.
Let the debate begin. Kickoff cannot come fast enough.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
