Arch Manning Is a Preseason Heisman Favorite: Why Texas Fans Should Actually Be Confident
Arch Manning walks into 2026 with the biggest expectations of any college football player, and this time the hype might actually match the reality.
The Texas quarterback is a preseason Heisman favorite for the second straight year, but the vibe around him has shifted. Manning finished last season on a tear, averaging 285.7 passing yards and 3.3 total touchdowns per game over the final five games. That stretch changed the conversation from “when will he be great” to “he already is.”
Steve Sarkisian’s offense is now built around Manning. That was not the case a year ago, when Texas was trying to figure out what version of Manning they had. The pieces around him this season are also significantly better. Auburn transfer wide receiver Cam Coleman is a legit outside threat. Hollywood Smothers, the No. 2 running back in his class, is now a Longhorn. The offensive line returns experienced players.
What has changed most is Manning himself. He reported to fall camp saying he feels “100 percent.” He no longer looks like a redshirt junior working through nerves. He looks like a Heisman contender who happens to also be the most famous college quarterback in the country because of his last name.
That name is both a gift and a burden. Arch Manning grew up with Peyton and Eli as uncles, watched every Manning family highlight, and enrolled at Texas as one of the most hyped recruits in the history of college football. Any struggle got magnified. Any positive play got framed as him fulfilling his destiny. It has been a lot.
Now the noise is aligning with the on-field performance. Manning was efficient last season, threw for big yards down the stretch, and led Texas to a College Football Playoff appearance. He is not perceived as a game-manager anymore. He is perceived as a legitimate NFL prospect, and the Heisman voters are paying attention.
The one thing standing between Arch and the Heisman is a soft season opener where he doesn’t get to put up video game numbers early. Voters love a fast start. Manning has to hit the ground running against Texas’ opening opponents, keep the highlight tape flowing, and then have a big moment against Georgia or another SEC opponent in October.
The competition is real. Dante Moore returned to Oregon and could have a massive year. Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State will be in the mix if Ohio State goes undefeated. But Manning has the built-in narrative advantage of being a Manning, and Texas has one of the softer schedules among preseason top-five teams.
Sarkisian’s system is another advantage. His scheme has produced Heisman-worthy production before, and he knows how to script early plays to give his quarterback confidence and rhythm. Manning’s completion percentage should climb this year, his big-play rate should stay elite, and his interception rate should drop as he continues to trust his reads.
Archie Manning has been publicly downplaying his grandson’s NFL Draft timeline, saying Arch will be at Texas for another season regardless of what happens. That takes the daily “when will he leave” question off the table. Arch gets to focus on winning games and possibly a Heisman.
Texas has not had a Heisman winner since Ricky Williams. That is not an unreasonable comparison in terms of history and momentum. Manning has everything set up for a run. The final push is on him and whether he can turn a preseason favorite label into an actual trophy in December.
The Longhorns open the season as one of the most complete teams in the country. Arch Manning is the reason. Get ready for a Heisman campaign that is going to dominate college football coverage for the next four months.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
