First, the correction a lot of coverage still needs: Tarik Skubal is not a Tiger. Detroit traded him to the Dodgers on Aug. 2, 2026 for Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith.
He becomes a free agent after this postseason, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel polled 27 insiders who averaged out at eight years and $355 million, roughly $44.6 million a year.
The Season Says He Is Worth It
Skubal went 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA across 26 starts and 158.2 innings this year, striking out 186 with a 0.964 WHIP. Sixteen of those starts were in Detroit, ten in Los Angeles.
With the Dodgers specifically: 5-2, 2.61 ERA, 62 innings, 70 strikeouts, 13 walks in 10 starts.
He is a two-time AL Cy Young winner, in 2024 and 2025, with two ERA titles. He turns 30 on Nov. 20. He won his arbitration hearing in February for $32 million, a record arbitration salary.
The Elbow Is the Number Mover
Eric Fisher of Front Office Sports reported in May that Skubal had arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow, with a two-to-three month timeline.
Before that, the chatter had reached roughly $400 million. McDaniel’s pre-surgery survey averaged 7.7 years and $357 million. The current survey lands at eight years and $355 million, so the market has barely moved on paper.
That is either a sign that teams do not consider the procedure serious, or a sign that nobody wants to be the executive who publicly discounts a two-time Cy Young winner. Skubal himself downplayed it: “The procedure itself I think is pretty simple.”
The benchmark to beat for a pitcher remains Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12 years and $325 million.
Where He Lands
McDaniel’s survey put the Dodgers, Mets and Tigers in the top group, with the Yankees just behind and the White Sox, Padres and Angels as sleepers.
Detroit being on that list is darkly funny. The Tigers never made him a long-term offer, by his own account, then traded him in August, and are now projected as a landing spot in his free agency. “I’ll deal with the contract stuff at the end of the year,” Skubal said when asked about it in the spring.
His agent is Scott Boras, which means the end of the year is going to take a while.
My Call
Eight years takes Skubal to 38. Every long pitcher contract ends badly and teams keep signing them because the alternative is not having an ace.
I would go seven years and structure the back end with opt-outs. He will get eight from someone, and the Dodgers, who already have him and who do not flinch at this kind of money, are the obvious answer.
The team that wins the bidding will be fine for four years and regretful for the last three. That is just the price of the position now.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
