Golden State finished 32-12 and grabbed the No. 2 seed. The Valkyries get Games 1 and 2 at Chase Center. They own the best defense in the WNBA. And they are still losing this series in four games.
The semifinals open Sunday, October 4, with the Valkyries hosting the defending champion Las Vegas Aces on NBC and Peacock. Game 2 is Wednesday in San Francisco, Game 3 shifts to Las Vegas on Friday, October 9. It is a best-of-five, and the winner moves on to a Finals that tips October 17.
One number tells you how this goes. Las Vegas went 3-0 against Golden State in the regular season despite finishing a game back at 31-13. Three tries, three Aces wins, against the team that supposedly had the better year.
A’ja Wilson Is The Entire Problem
Wilson won the 2026 scoring title at 26.2 points per game while shooting better than 50 percent from the floor and 40 percent from three. That combination at her size should not exist. The Associated Press picked her for a fifth MVP, and she is the reigning winner.
Then she put 36 on Indiana in the first round as Las Vegas closed out the Fever 2-1 after dropping Game 2. Golden State’s defense finished first in the league this season, which is a real achievement and also mostly irrelevant here. Wilson beats schemes, not just matchups.
Behind her, the Aces have Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young, two guards who have closed out playoff games for championships before. Wilson, Gray and Young combined for 77 points in the win that eliminated Indiana. Las Vegas already owns titles from 2022 and 2023 plus the one it is defending, and it is chasing a second straight.
What Golden State Actually Has
Credit where it belongs: Gabby Williams has turned into a closer. She scored 19 in the series-clinching win over Dallas, 17 of them after halftime, including the go-ahead jumper from 17 feet with 1:17 left in a game Golden State had trailed by 16.
“I love these situations, I love high-pressure situations,” Williams said afterward.
The Valkyries also have inside knowledge. Head coach Natalie Nakase worked as an assistant under Becky Hammon in Las Vegas from 2022 to 2024, and center Kiah Stokes and guard Tiffany Hayes both played for the Aces. That is worth something in a best-of-five where adjustments decide games.
It is not worth three wins, though. A second-year franchise with exactly one playoff series victory on its ledger is being asked to solve the best player in the world three times in a week and a half, after failing to beat her once in three regular-season tries.
The Pick: Aces In Four
Golden State steals one of the two at Chase Center, because a playoff crowd is worth a possession or two and Williams is good enough to win a tight fourth quarter by herself. Then Las Vegas takes the series on the margins Wilson creates every single night.
The truly close semifinal is on the other side of the bracket, where the No. 8 Liberty, who became the first eight seed in league history to eliminate a No. 1 seed when they swept Minnesota, meet the No. 4 Dream. Call that one a coin flip. This one has a clear answer, and it wears black and red.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
