The National League has been the less dramatic league all season, and the standings on September 12 explain why. Three teams have essentially locked up their divisions, and the only real suspense is at the very bottom of the bracket.
Milwaukee leads everything at 91-56 with a plus run differential that backs it up. The Brewers have already clinched a berth and their lead in the Central is enormous. The Dodgers are 89-57 and nobody in the NL West is close to them.
Atlanta is 86-61 and four games clear of Philadelphia in the East. That is the closest thing to a race among the division leaders, and it still isn’t one.
Philadelphia’s Consolation Prize
The Phillies at 82-65 are the best team that won’t win a division. They’re four back of Atlanta with about two weeks left, which is not impossible but is close to it given how Atlanta has played.
So Philadelphia’s real fight is for the top wild card seed, and the Cubs at 81-66 are right there. One game separates them. That matters because the third seed hosts the entire best-of-three Wild Card Series, and home field in a three-game set is a genuine advantage.
I’ll take the Phillies to hold the third seed. Chicago has the better run differential of the two, but Philadelphia has the rotation depth that plays up in short series and the Cubs have been streaky enough that a four-game skid feels inevitable.
The Last Spot
San Diego is 78-68. Arizona is 78-69. Half a game. That’s the whole race.
Both teams have been treading water since August and neither has shown the ability to separate. The Padres have a slightly better winning percentage and the Diamondbacks have the better run differential, which is the kind of split that makes projection systems shrug.
Give me San Diego. The Padres have the bullpen edge, and in September that is worth more than a couple of runs of differential spread across 147 games. Arizona has been losing the games it needs to win, and the Diamondbacks have not beaten a quality opponent in a series that mattered for weeks.
There’s also the schedule factor. Both clubs are in the West, which means they’re staring at Dodgers series down the stretch, and Los Angeles has no reason to rest anyone while it chases the top overall seed with Milwaukee.
The Bracket I’d Bet On
Brewers, Dodgers, Braves as division winners. Phillies, Cubs, Padres as wild cards. Milwaukee and Los Angeles take the byes and Atlanta hosts the Padres in a Wild Card Series starting September 29, with Philadelphia hosting Chicago in the other.
Pittsburgh at 74-73 is the only other team with a pulse, and four games back of the final spot with 15 to play against a schedule that includes real opponents is not a comeback story. The Pirates are done.
The bigger question is whether any of this matters once October starts. Milwaukee has the best record in baseball and that has meant almost nothing in this playoff format. The bye is a gift and also a problem: nine days off before a best-of-five against a team that just won two straight elimination games has burned top seeds repeatedly.
The Dodgers are the team I’d be most afraid of in October, and it has nothing to do with the standings. They have the postseason rotation, the lineup, and the roster built specifically for five and seven-game series. Milwaukee’s 91 wins are real, but the Brewers’ formula depends on depth and bullpen matchups, and that gets harder against a team that can throw an ace every other night.
Regular season ends September 27. Everything below the top two seeds is still worth watching, and the Padres and Diamondbacks are going to make the last two weeks miserable for each other.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.