Aaron Judge already owns the American League single-season home run record. He hit 62 in 2022. He hit 58 in 2024. He hit 53 in 2025. He is the only player in baseball history with four 50-homer seasons, and he is currently chasing a fifth.
Through the Yankees’ first 40 games, Judge has 15 home runs. If he keeps that pace, he finishes the season with 61. If he heats up in summer, which he has historically done, he is on pace for 66. That would break his own AL record. The same record he set four years ago.
That is the kind of stat line that should be making more noise than it is.
The Numbers Are Insane
Judge is 33. He just had his 374th career home run. He is tied for 81st on the all-time list. He is fourth on the Yankees franchise list behind Babe Ruth (659), Mickey Mantle (536), and Lou Gehrig (493).
If Judge stays healthy and plays four more full seasons at his current pace, he ends up around 530 career home runs. That puts him in the top 20 all-time and ahead of every Yankee not named Ruth.
The MVP argument is already happening. Judge has been the best player in the American League for most of the last six years. He has two MVPs. He probably wins a third this year. The conversation about whether he is the best Yankee since Mickey Mantle is going to come up at the All-Star break.
What Makes This Year Different
Judge has fixed the strikeout rate. He is at 23 percent. His career average is north of 28 percent. That is the kind of contact rate that should not be possible for a slugger of his physical profile.
He is also walking more. His walk rate is 16 percent, the highest of his career. Pitchers have stopped giving him strikes to hit. He is taking the free base when they offer it.
The Yankees are also in first place in the AL East by a comfortable margin. The team is good. The protection in the lineup is there. Trent Grisham has been excellent in the leadoff spot. Anthony Volpe is finally producing at the plate. Judge is not getting pitched around as often because there are real consequences behind him.
The Race for the Real Record
Barry Bonds holds the all-time single-season home run record at 73. That number sits in baseball history with an asterisk in most fans’ minds. The Aaron Judge version of 73 would not. He is one of the cleanest superstars in baseball. The PED conversation does not exist around him.
If Judge gets to 70 home runs this year, the cultural moment is going to be enormous. Bonds’ record has not been seriously challenged in 25 years. The closest anyone came was Judge himself in 2022 when he hit 62. That is the same guy who is now on pace for 66.
The Verdict
Judge is going to break his own AL record. The pace is real. The contact is real. The protection is real. Whether he gets to 73 is a separate question that depends on staying healthy for the second half.
This is also a Hall of Fame conversation in real time. Judge is now firmly on the path to Cooperstown. He has the home runs, the MVPs, the All-Star appearances. If he stays healthy through age 38, he ends up with a plaque next to Reggie Jackson and Derek Jeter.
The Yankees fan base should be enjoying this. Watching Judge hit a baseball is the closest thing baseball has had to a generational must-watch event since the Bonds chase in 2001.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
