The Tarik Skubal trade rumors are no longer rumors. They are a countdown.
MLB insider Jon Heyman put the chance of Detroit trading Skubal before the August 3 deadline at 90 percent on MLB Network this week. That is an absurdly high number for a star this big and a market this complicated. When Heyman says 90, the industry hears “it is going to happen.”
“I think the chances are excellent that he is traded,” Heyman said. “I think the likelihood is very, very high. I would say 90 percent.”
Detroit Tigers fans, brace yourselves.
The math is brutal but it is also rational. Skubal is a back-to-back Cy Young winner. He is a free agent after this season. He is a Scott Boras client expected to reset the market for starting pitchers. The number could be $400 million or more on his next contract. Detroit is not going to pay it. Boras-Tigers extensions are not really a thing.
So if the Tigers know they are going to lose him for nothing, they have to trade him while the asset still has value. That is basic baseball economics. And the Tigers’ season hasn’t gone well enough to justify keeping him for a wild card chase that may not materialize.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has openly mused about wanting Skubal in Los Angeles. The Yankees, Cubs, Brewers, and Braves have all been linked. Every contender with cash and prospects to spend is sniffing around.
There is one complication. Skubal is currently on the IL recovering from an elbow injury. Rival executives have said he will likely need to make at least three healthy starts to convince acquiring teams he is right for a playoff push. That timeline puts him pitching again sometime in late June or early July, just before the deadline.
If he looks like himself, the bidding war is going to be unreal. If he looks shaky, the Tigers may have to take less than they are hoping for.
For Detroit GM Scott Harris, the calculus has to be cold. You can’t get sentimental with assets at this level. The Tigers need to get the best package they can and start building toward the next contention window. Skubal alone isn’t dragging this team to a title in 2026.
For Skubal, a trade probably means landing on a real contender with a chance at his first playoff start. That is the dream for any free-agent-to-be. He gets a championship run, he gets the showcase, and then he gets paid in the offseason.
Heyman has been around this game long enough to know what 90 percent really means. Pack the bags. This one is happening.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
