Arch Manning Is the Favorite to Be the 2027 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick
Arch Manning is the most talked-about college football player in the country, and he has not even started as a full-time starter for a full season yet.
The Texas quarterback is currently the betting favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, and the case for him is straightforward. He is the top prospect from the most famous quarterback family in NFL history, he is going into his second full year as a starter at a top-five program, and he has NFL-level tools that scouts have been raving about since he was a sophomore in high school.
The Manning name is doing some of the work here. Peyton and Eli both had long, decorated NFL careers. Arch is the nephew of two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks and the grandson of Archie Manning, a former No. 2 overall pick himself. The gene pool is loaded. The film matches the pedigree.
Arch’s numbers last year in his first year as the Texas starter were solid but not elite. That was expected. He was still adjusting to being the guy after backing up Quinn Ewers for two seasons. What scouts saw on tape was more encouraging than the box score. Elite arm talent, real mobility, and a level of processing that suggests he can handle NFL-level defensive complexity.
The competition for the 2027 No. 1 pick is real, though. Dante Moore at Oregon is the second-favorite according to most oddsmakers. Drew Mestemaker at Oklahoma State and CJ Carr at Notre Dame are also in the conversation. This is not a class where Arch Manning has zero competition for the top spot.
The other names to watch are the non-quarterbacks. Colin Simmons at Texas could be the first defensive player off the board. Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State is projected as a top-five receiver in any class. Leonard Moore at Notre Dame is the top corner. If a team at the top of the draft has a quarterback already, they might reach for one of those guys instead.
But the QB-first draft economy is real. Teams with a top-three pick almost always take a QB if there is a viable one available. That is why Arch Manning at Texas, with the Manning name and the media coverage that comes with it, is going to be at the center of every scouting report for the next year.
The Texas season starts Saturday. Arch has to prove he can lead the Longhorns deep into the playoff. Texas is picked as a real national title contender, and Arch will get every big-stage moment scouts want to see him in. If he plays well, the No. 1 conversation gets locked in. If he struggles, the field gets crowded.
The Manning story continues. This might be the last chapter.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.
